Junk bonds are tanking. Oil is in a free fall. The Chinese are talking about moving their currency lower against the dollar. Stocks are overvalued by just about any traditional metric. And Janet Yellen's merry band of central bankers are about to raise interest rates. Super.
And yet, the S&P 500 closed Monday just 5.3% away from the most recent all-time high. This despite the fact that the market has been under a fair amount of pressure over the past two weeks. So, should investors take solace in the idea that the bears still haven't been able to get anything serious going or be keeping at least one eye on the exits here?
To be sure, this is one difficult market. I will argue that the market has been exceptionally hard to navigate for more than a year now. And with traders currently tying their daily buying and selling decisions to the price of oil, it doesn't look like things are going to get much easier any time soon.
So, what are investors to do as we inch ever closer to hitting the reset button on a new calendar year? Should we do nothing and stay the course? Should we punt? Or should we simply close our eyes, cross our fingers, and hope for the best?
It is at times like these that I am glad that I don't depend on opinions or a macro view to guide my decisions. No, as I've espoused a time or twenty throughout the years, I prefer to let a group of objective indicators and models help me plot the course forward.
And since some of the indicators have changed a fair amount since our last look, I thought this would be a good time to review our key market indicators.
Let's start with a big batch of trend indicators. One of the beauties of using price as your guide is knowing that price can't ever deviate from itself as an indicator. Sure, price can go up and down and back and forth, but one will never be fooled into thinking something good is happening when prices are heading down.
Below are the ratings for our key price trend indicators.
While I could spend the next week writing about how these indicators work, the pros, the cons, and the pitfalls of each, the easy way to approach this little exercise is to simply look at the dominant color of the indicator rating boxes in each category.
The bottom line here becomes pretty obvious, pretty quickly as there is an awful lot of red in the price trend indicator box.
Next, let's take a look under the hood so to speak and review the momentum indicators/models. The most important thing to understand about this group of indicators is that for a move in the market to be taken seriously, it must have some "oomph" behind it. As such, we like to use the momentum indicators as confirmation of the current trend.
Below is a summary of the key internal momentum indicators.
Yikes! That's a sea of red if I've ever seen one. And the key here is that stocks don't tend to perform very well at all when there is this much red ink in this indicator arena.
However, it is also worth noting that unless stocks are about to embark on a major decline, this much negativity means the worst of the current move just might be over.
On that note, the next thing to look at is what we call the "early warning" group. These indicators are designed to tell us when the market is getting ripe for a reversal - at least on a short-term basis. So, since this exercise tends to get pretty long, pretty fast, we'll start tomorrow off with a review of these indicators.
Although we are only halfway through our review, we can conclude that the state of the market is not great at the present time. More tomorrow...
Today's Pre-Game Indicators
Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
Hong Kong: -0.17%
Crude Oil Futures: +$0.10 to $36.41
Gold: +$1.50 at $1064.90
Dollar: higher against the yen, lower vs. euro and pound
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.239%
Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
S&P 500: +9.75
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +52
NASDAQ Composite: +23.70
Thought For The Day:
"Investing is simple, but not easy" - Warren Buffett
Here's wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
Heritage Capital Research
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The State of Oil's Dive
2. The State of Global Central Bank Policy
3. The State of Global Growth
The State of the Trend
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 6 months, and long-term as 6 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Moderately Negative
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Neutral
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
- Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2020, 1990
- Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2135
The State of the Tape
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Negative
- Price Thrust Indicator: Negative
- Volume Thrust Indicator(NASDAQ): Negative
- Breadth Thrust Indicator (NASDAQ): Negative
- Short-Term Volume Relationship: Negative
- Technical Health of 100+ Industry Groups: Moderately Negative
The Early Warning Indicators
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
- S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
- Short-Term: Oversold
- Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
- Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Negative
The State of the Market Environment
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.
- Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Neutral
Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
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The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
David D. Moenning is the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are offered through Heritage Capital Management, Inc. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the HCM firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting HeritageHCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM or Heritage is registered as a broker-dealer.
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