David Moenning
Big Picture 2026: Up On The Ladder
While we wait on some big tech earnings (MSFT, META, TSLA, and AAPL all report this week) I thought it would be a good idea to continue with our review of the stock market's macro environment. So today, we'll attempt to tackle the issue of valuations.
To be sure, this is a tricky …
Big Picture 2026: Inflation (Is Not a Problem)
Last week, we began the process of overviewing the big-picture macro drivers of the stock market as we explored the state of the economy and expectations for earnings. The bottom line take was the economy appears to be doing just fine, thank you, and the consensus for earnings growth this…
The Big Picture 2026 - The Economy & Earnings
With the holiday decorations now back in their storage bins and investment professionals having returned to their desks, it appears that the serious work in the markets for the new year has officially begun. And so far at least, investors seem to have an optimistic outlook for the stock m…
What The Cycles Say About 2026
Before I put away the keyboard for the Holiday Season, I thought it might be a good idea to look ahead and see what the historical cycles have to say about the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.
Yes, it is certainly true that investors have a lot to consider as we he…
The State of the AI Trade
Don't look now fans, but the AI trade - you know, that high-octane corner of the market loaded with new-fangled semiconductor chips, cloud plays large and small, and those mind-bending large-language models - is still kicking up plenty of dust in the market. The question, of course, is wh…
Run of the Mill Specwreck
To be sure, there is a great deal of angst in the markets these days. Truly remarkable earnings reports have been met with heavy selling. Talk of bubbles abound on a daily basis. And that favorable seasonality the bulls were counting on has been a complete no-show so far this year.
Time To Panic Or...?
Stocks have moved into a bit of a risk-off mode lately as gloom and doom, talk of bubbles (which everyone sees this time around!), and of course, impending economic calamity appears to be the order of the day.
Believe it or not, the glass-is-half-empty crowd is once again telling …
Shifting Winds
Don't look now fans, but the stock market appears to have made it through the worst two-month period of the year unscathed. Sure, there were a couple of scary down days in September and October as traders fretted about credit, trade, and endless talk of bubbles. And it is also true that s…
All Clear?
After a couple scary days based on the assumption that the next 2008-style credit collapse was upon us, stocks have pulled a U-turn. And don't look now fans, but the S&P 500 sits at fresh all-time high as I type. Nice.
So much for the new credit crisis. So much for the correct…