Party On, Wayne! image

Party On, Wayne!

The joyride to the upside continued in the stock market last week as the S&P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, that means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 and has put in a nifty gain of 18% since the December 24th panic attack. Impressiv…
Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand? image

Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand?

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of more effective trend-following tools readily available), the…
Herd Behavior image

Herd Behavior

"Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)] "Theoretical models on herd behavior predict that under d…
Where Do Things Stand Now? image

Where Do Things Stand Now?

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of time. To review, starting December 3rd, stocks began moving down - in a straight line - wit…
All Clear? image

All Clear?

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts the week well above its December lows and looking good. To be s…
Is Enough Baked In? image

Is Enough Baked In?

After a very scary decline and then an impressive rally, the question most investors are probably asking themselves is, where are we now? In order to get our bearings, let's review where we've been. Recall that as of the market close on Christmas eve, the bears had pummeled the S&…
The Magic Words image

The Magic Words

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13.3% from the most recent high water mark. My guess is everybody is feeling a little bit better about the stock market right …
Is It Over? And What To Expect Next image

Is It Over? And What To Expect Next

I ended last week's pre-holiday missive with the following: "It is easy to say the bulls are due. Really due." And as if right on cue, stocks proceeded to bounce hard the following session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoying its biggest one-day point gain in history: 1,086.25. …
More Than Meets The Eye Happening Here image

More Than Meets The Eye Happening Here

I attended a holiday gathering for one of my advisor clients on Friday evening. While everyone appeared to be in the spirit of the season, when the conversation eventually turned to the market action, the mood quickly changed. In talking with fellow financial professionals through…
Are Investors Now Fighting The Fed And The Tape? image

Are Investors Now Fighting The Fed And The Tape?

I'm not sure whether it was the late Marty Zweig or his buddy Ned Davis who originally coined the phrase, but it appears that after yesterday, anyone long the stock market may now officially be fighting both the Fed and the tape! Investors came into Wednesday in a hopeful mood. An…