Have The Bears Found Their Raison d'Etre? image

Have The Bears Found Their Raison d'Etre?

Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. The key to the markets in the early going on this fine Monday morning is the apparent easing of tensions with North Korea. For example, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said over the weekend he'd seen "no intel…
Indicator Review: The Table Appears To Be Set For... image

Indicator Review: The Table Appears To Be Set For...

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. North Korea's obsession with missiles, the issues of Tax Reform and the Debt Ceiling, and what I call "Fed Expectations" are in focus this week. On the latter, note that, according to Bloomberg, the futures-implied odds…
Quick Take: Job Market Continues to Improve, Bulls Have Work to Do image

Quick Take: Job Market Continues to Improve, Bulls Have Work to Do

The first Friday of a new month means that jobs are in focus - so let's get right to the numbers. The Labor Department reported the economy created 209,000 new jobs in the month of July, which was well above the Reuters consensus expectation for 183,000 new jobs. In addition, the nation's…
Playing The Game According To Conditions image

Playing The Game According To Conditions

For some time now, I've been summing up my big-picture take on the stock market by suggesting that (a) it's a bull market until proven otherwise and (b) risk factors are elevated. To review, the primary risks I'm referencing are the valuation metrics, which, in general, are currently at h…
On The Other Hand... image

On The Other Hand...

Yesterday, we explored the historical cycles of the stock market. I showed that a composite of the one-year seasonal, the four-year Presidential, and the ten-year decennial cycles projects a nasty decline could begin any time now. However, I opined that since the market seems to be on goo…
Not A Pretty Picture image

Not A Pretty Picture

With the stock market having gained ground yet again last month (July's return of 1.93% for the S&P 500 was the second best of 2017) and sporting a return of 10.4% on the year, the question of the day is, where do we go from here? The bulls argue that it will be onward and upw…
Improving Conditions, But... image

Improving Conditions, But...

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. Russia, Trump's Tweets as well as his latest hiring/firing, a big M&A deal, and North Korea's latest missile tests are in focus to start the week. But since it's the start of a new week, let's focus on our o…
Quick Take: Tech Selloff, Economic Data in Focus image

Quick Take: Tech Selloff, Economic Data in Focus

Here's your "quick take" on this morning's market... Yesterday's sudden selloff in tech, the failure of the "skinny repeal," disappointing earnings from both Amazon and Starbucks, U.S. GDP, and the surprisingly good economic data across the pond are in focus this morning. …
No Surprises image

No Surprises

As expected, the FOMC said little that was new in the release of yesterday's post-meeting policy statement. Yes, there were the obligatory tweaks to the first paragraph regarding current economic conditions and some very modest adjustments to the committee's view on inflation. And yes, th…
Mid-Year Valuation Review image

Mid-Year Valuation Review

One of the key issues in the stock market revolves around the idea of valuations. Cutting to the chase, the question is whether or not the growth rate of the economy and, in turn, earnings, is strong enough to justify what most see as lofty valuation levels in stocks. One of the k…