Making The

Making The "Call"

After the roller coaster rebound seen on Friday, February 9 and then the best week in more than 5 years for the S&P 500, I guess one of the easiest stock market calls was that it was probably time to "go the other way" for a while. And "go the other way" they did on Tuesday. C…
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No Surprises

The bears were probably more than a little disappointed with their performance yesterday. If you will recall, Dow futures had swung from a gain of +165 points just prior to the release of what was being billed as a potential blockbuster CPI report, to a loss of -340 points minutes after. …
Today, It's All About The Inflation Data image

Today, It's All About The Inflation Data

Well, if you were wondering if inflation and, in turn, interest rates were important to the stock market, this morning's initial market reaction to the CPI data cleared things up. The Labor Department reported at 8:30 am eastern that the Consumer Price Index (aka CPI) rose by 0.5%…
What's Next? History Suggests... image

What's Next? History Suggests...

One of my favorite jokes about Wall Street goes something like this: The first time something happens on Wall Street, it's called it a trend. If it happens twice in a row, it's a tradition. And if it happens three times in a row, well, it's darned near a commandment! I guess it is…
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The Biggest Change Seen Last Week Was...

I like to start each week by reviewing (a) my key market indicators and (b) the macro picture of the current market environment. As such, my Monday morning market missive is intended to cover both. Let's start by taking a quick survey of the damage the stock market's decline has i…
Is This Really About Rates? image

Is This Really About Rates?

I usually don't write on Friday mornings. However, with the Dow experiencing its second quadruple-digit dance to the downside of the week yesterday, I figured it was probably time to make an exception. The goal of this morning's hopefully not-so meandering market missive is to try…
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Where is the Equilibrium Point?

As I wrote on Tuesday, the question of the day (for me at least) remains the same on this fine Thursday morning. What is real and what is artificial? Sure, stocks bounced right on cue after getting sucker punched by what I believe was a 12-standard deviation move in the volatility…
What is Real and What is Artificial? image

What is Real and What is Artificial?

During times of market stress, one of the biggest challenges is trying to determine what is real and what is artificial. When markets spike - in either direction - there is usually some sort of a news event or happening that triggers the move. BREXIT was a prime example of this. M…
Have The Fundamentals Changed? image

Have The Fundamentals Changed?

Although there are lots of folks wringing their hands over last week's dance to the downside in both stock and bond prices, the key question from a macro standpoint is, has anything changed? Cutting to the chase, I'm going to say, maybe. Before I get into the details, let'…
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Welcome to Wait-and-See Mode

After Tuesday's dance to the downside, it is easy to fall into a trap by thinking that the next trading day will become a "tell" for what will happen next. Although "confirmation" of a move is indeed a thing in technical analysis, it is important to remember that confirmation can take day…