Am I Wrong To Be A Little Concerned? image

Am I Wrong To Be A Little Concerned?

Well it's official. As of Friday's close (a close that was likely influenced by the quad-witching event and a handful of S&P index rebalances), the S&P 500 is now up +20.05% from the 12/24/18 panic low. Wow talk about a joyride to the upside! Along with the market's surge …
Let's Call It Constructive image

Let's Call It Constructive

The fact that stocks pulled back a bit last week shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone. The S&P 500 had enjoyed an historic joyride to the upside in a very short period of time. As in +19.2% in just 10 weeks. Along the way, stocks became overbought and sentiment got a li…
Thirteen Charts Tell The Story image

Thirteen Charts Tell The Story

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. So, this week, I've decided to try and sum up the keys to the current market environment with a series of charts and graphs. I started out looking for five key charts. That quickly turned into ten. And before I knew it; I had a baker's …
The Message From The Models: The Bulls Are In Charge, But... image

The Message From The Models: The Bulls Are In Charge, But...

It was a busy weekend of birthday celebrations (we had 2) and important family events in my household (our youngest is moving into her first apartment!) and as such, I didn't take the opportunity to spend a couple hours of quality time at the keyboard. While I've got a good start …
The Driving Force Behind The Current Action Is... image

The Driving Force Behind The Current Action Is...

One of the most important lessons I have learned about the business of investing is the drivers of the market action change over time. Sometimes dramatically so. It is for this reason that no one, I repeat, no one, has ever perfected the game for any length of time. You see, like golf, th…
Party On, Wayne! image

Party On, Wayne!

The joyride to the upside continued in the stock market last week as the S&P 500 surged another 2.5%. If my calculator is correct, that means the venerable blue-chip index is now up 10.7% so far in 2019 and has put in a nifty gain of 18% since the December 24th panic attack. Impressiv…
Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand? image

Bull vs. Bear. The Line In The Sand?

On Tuesday, February 5 and again on Wednesday, February 6, the S&P 500 bumped into its 200-day moving average. While I'm not exactly sure why this particular indicator captures the attention of so many (there are a myriad of more effective trend-following tools readily available), the…
Herd Behavior image

Herd Behavior

"Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)] "Theoretical models on herd behavior predict that under d…
Where Do Things Stand Now? image

Where Do Things Stand Now?

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of time. To review, starting December 3rd, stocks began moving down - in a straight line - wit…
All Clear? image

All Clear?

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts the week well above its December lows and looking good. To be s…