Will

Will "QT" Usher In The Great Bond Bear?

And now it begins - the "QT" era, that is. After spending nine years doing everything it could dream up to keep the U.S. economy from entering a disinflationary spiral, the Fed will officially begin to "unwind" its balance sheet next month. In an attempt to return both the central…
Understanding The

Understanding The "Elevated Risk" Concept

I have been saying for some time now that the stock market is not a low risk proposition at this stage of the game. There are several reasons for taking this stance, but Exhibit A in this argument is the state of stock market valuations. So, this morning, I'd like to review some hard, col…
The Most Bullish Thing A Market Can Do Is... image

The Most Bullish Thing A Market Can Do Is...

Good Monday morning and welcome back. It's a new week, so let's start things off with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in…
Bulls Get Benefit of Doubt, But... image

Bulls Get Benefit of Doubt, But...

It's a new week, so let's start things off right with an objective review of my key market models/indicators and see where things stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in order to stay…
Enter the Cruelest Month image

Enter the Cruelest Month

Geopolitics are back in focus on this first trading day of September. North Korea's push forward with another test on the nuclear front over the weekend caused U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley to suggest that Kim Jong Un is "begging for war." And given that South Korea is saying that the North…
Does The Jobs Report Change Anything? image

Does The Jobs Report Change Anything?

The first Friday of a new month means one thing: The Jobs report. Viewed by many as the most important economic report of the month, the data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment for August surprised to the downside. The Labor Department reported that the economy created 156,000 n…
Riding The Range Until... image

Riding The Range Until...

It is a safe bet that our furry friends in the bear camp figured the combination of Hurricane Harvey and increasing tensions with North Korea would get the party going to the downside. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the debacle; stocks decided to reverse course and rally in…
If History Is Our Guide, Harvey Will Cause Stocks To... image

If History Is Our Guide, Harvey Will Cause Stocks To...

Word is that Hurricane Harvey will end up being the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history. According to AccuWeather, the estimate for the full cost of the storm will approach $160 billion. To put this number in perspective, Harvey is expected to cost about the same as the combin…
Indicators Suggest Some Caution Still Warranted image

Indicators Suggest Some Caution Still Warranted

Please accept my apologies for the tardiness of this week's report. We had traveled to Chicagoland for family gatherings over the weekend and I awoke Monday morning to no internet where we were staying. And while the trek home was an adventure thanks to Mother Nature, all is right with my…

All Eyes On Jackson Hole

With this being one of the last Friday's of the summer vacation season, we can probably expect trading volumes to remain light today. But make no mistake about it; all eyes will be on Jackson Hole this morning where both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are slated to speak. The key h…