Is It Time For Investors To Exhale? image

Is It Time For Investors To Exhale?

As I have mentioned a time or two lately, I have been trying not to write on Friday's. However, I must admit that I'm feeling a small (emphasis on the word, small) amount of guilt over the idea of heading to Spain/Portugal for the next two weeks. So, I'm going to go ahead and pen one more…
Not a Crystal Ball, But... image

Not a Crystal Ball, But...

In yesterday morning's market missive, I opined that investing based on one's "view" of what might happen next in Ms. Market's game is not exactly a path to success. However, I also suggested that having a "view" can be helpful when it comes time to pull the trigger on a trade or a change…
Remember, It's Okay To Be Wrong. Just Don't Be... image

Remember, It's Okay To Be Wrong. Just Don't Be...

As I have mentioned a time or twenty, I believe in a rules-guided approach to managing the markets. The idea here is fairly straightforward. I have learned over my 30 years of professional investing that staying in tune with the weight of the evidence (as in cold, unemotional, objective m…
Another Tweet Kills The Mood, For Now image

Another Tweet Kills The Mood, For Now

Word that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had purchased a cool 75 million shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) during the rather bumpy ride that was the first quarter of 2018 certainly improved the mood on Wall Street. Most credit "The Oracle of Omaha" with Friday's big rally as well as Mon…
The Question: How Much is Enough? image

The Question: How Much is Enough?

In pondering the macro picture over the weekend, it occurred to me that the current environment can be summed up with one simple question: How much is enough? As in, how much do stock prices need to correct from their January blow-off highs in order to create a fairly valued market where …
All About Jobs (Until The Next Headline) image

All About Jobs (Until The Next Headline)

It's the first Friday of the month, which means it is time for the Big Kahuna of economic data - the jobs report. So, without further ado, let's get to the report and review the bevy of numbers. The big headline is the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Nonfarm Payrolls came…
All About The Fed, Until It Wasn't image

All About The Fed, Until It Wasn't

Wednesday's action in the stock market was all about the Fed. Well, right up until it wasn't, that is. As expected, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) left the target range for the Fed Funds Rate at 1.50% to 1.75% yesterday. To be clear, no one expected Jay Powell's gang to …
The Macro Concerns In 3 Charts image

The Macro Concerns In 3 Charts

To be sure, two big events will likely capture investors' attention in the short-run: Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) earnings and today's Fed Meeting, which concludes this afternoon at 2:00pm eastern. However, from an intermediate-term perspective, it appears that the macro picture still holds th…
Is the Tape Telling Us to

Is the Tape Telling Us to "Sell in May and...?"

What started out as a hopeful end to the first positive month in the last three ended in disappointment Monday. Green turned to red. Optimism about earnings turned to fear that earnings have peaked. Hope for ongoing economic growth turned to, well, you get the idea. By the end of the day,…
The Next Big Fear Is... image

The Next Big Fear Is...

At the end of last week's missive, I concluded with the idea that the stock market continues to adjust/adapt to the new macro outlook, which includes higher rates, higher inflation, a stronger economy, and perhaps peak earnings growth. This week, I believe it is important to add t…