The key talking points in the market remain unchanged this morning. First and foremost, there is the question of whether or not Ms. Yellen's merry band of central bankers is going to lose their "patience" this week and change the wording of the FOMC statement. It is widely expected that the word "patient" will come out of the statement accompanying the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday. And as we've been told, the removal of the word patience means that the Fed can start hiking rates at any time. Currently, the stock market is conflicted as to when the first rate hike will occur (June vs. September) and the thinking is that bad (economic) news as good news as it relates to the question.
Next up is the issue of the dollar and oil. While joined at the hip the vast majority of the time, the resumption of the dive in crude prices appears to have more to do with Iran than the greenback. The key here is the issue of economic sanctions on Iran being lifted. On the subject, Iran’s oil minister said Monday that if sanctions were lifted, his country could boost exports by 1 million barrels per day within several months. As such, the fundamental issue of supply is clearly back on the table here.
Finally, there is the issue of earnings expectations. The bottom line here is that the furious rise in the U.S. dollar will undoubtedly impact earnings of multinational companies. Analysts have been cutting expectations for the upcoming earnings season and as a result, the outlook for the current quarter isn't pretty. Therefore, traders will need to listen closely to company commentary when the earnings parade begins again in the next few weeks.
Current Market Outlook
If there was any doubt as to what is the primary driving force in the market at this time, yesterday's action should have removed all doubt. While many analysts view global central bank intervention as bordering on absurd, this remains what traders are focused on. In short, having access to fresh cash with little-to-no cost via sophisticated carry trades trumps all else. So, with China's Premier announcing publicly that his central bank will need to cut rates in order support job growth and all the data in the U.S. save the jobs report coming in surprisingly weak, yesterday's action was all about celebrating the green - as in easy money, that is. And this is the reason that the stock market remains in an uptrend. The problem is that from a short-term perspective, this market can't seem to stay focused on any one issue for more than a couple days and as such, the current uptrend is frustratingly choppy. Removing emotion from the picture, our market models are improving, albeit begrudgingly, but remain neutral on balance at this stage. Thus, the indicators suggest that some caution remains warranted in the near-term.
It appears that stocks have put in yet another V-Bottom over the past three days. And as such, it looks like we've got the 10th change of direction in the stock market trend since December to deal with. To be sure, this back-and-forth, up one minute and down the next market action is challenging for anyone attempting to gauge the overall risk/reward environment in the market on a shorter-term basis. However, our friends in the bull camp remind us that an intermediate-term uptrend remains in place on the chart of the S&P 500 - an uptrend dating back to the October low. Stocks are currently neither oversold nor overbought, sentiment is now a modest tailwind, and the momentum indicators are conflicted. As such, it looks like the current sloppy period is likely to remain until traders get clarity on what the Fed is going to "say" next.
S&P 500 Index - Daily
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Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
Major Foreign Markets:
Hong Kong: -0.20%
Crude Oil Futures: -$1.03 to $42.85
Gold: +$1.00 at $1152.20
Dollar: higher against the yen, lower vs. euro and pound
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.050%
Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
S&P 500: -7.24
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -71
NASDAQ Composite: -9.12
Thought For The Day:
One of the most sincere forms of respect is actually listening to what another has to say. - Bryant McGill
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
2. The State of the U.S. Economy
3. The State of the U.S. Dollar
The State of the Trend
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Neutral
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
- Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2040
- Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2100
The State of the Tape
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Neutral
- Price Thrust Indicator: Neutral
- Volume Thrust Indicator: Negative
- Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
- Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Positive
- Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Neutral
The Early Warning Indicators
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
- S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
- Short-Term: Neutral
- Intermediate-Term: Neutral
- Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Negative .
The State of the Market Environment
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.
- Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Moderately Positive
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
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David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.
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