It's been a while, but worries about the state of Europe's banking industry are back in a big way this morning. Specifically, concerns about the health of Portugal's largest listed bank are causing a rout of 1% or more across Europe. Banco Espirito Santo, which has delayed payments on short-term debt, is down more than 15% in trading across the pond.
Next, weak industrial production numbers out of France continue to cause concern about the state of the European Economy. And Finally, bond yields in Greece have jumped this morning on the back of modest demand for the embattled country's 3-year bond sale. So, it looks like worries about Europe are back on traders' radar.
In economic news, we will get weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am eastern as well as the report on wholesale trade. On the Fed-speak front, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak at 4:30 pm.
U.S. stock futures are down hard in the early going and point to a triple-digit loss for the Dow on the open.
Current Market Outlook
This continues to be one of the most hated bull markets in history. Despite an improving economy and a lack of any meaningful declines for the past year and a half, a great many analysts continue to espouse doom and gloom regarding the outlook for the U.S. stock market. It appears that the bears will have yet another opportunity to get something going to the downside today as worries about banks in Europe and the potential for rate contagion has futures on the run in the early going. However, we should keep in mind that all declines lasting 2 days or more have been bought recently. As such, it will be interesting to see if the dip buyers come in this week. For now, our market models remain moderately positive.
Looking at the charts...
At first blush, yesterday's rally appeared to be positive as the 2-day decline was halted. However, upon closer inspection of the technical action, we find that Wednesday's action produced an "inside day" (a session in which the day's high is below the prior day's high and the low is above the prior day's low) on the charts of the major indices. And the technical analysis textbooks tell us that "inside days" suggest that the trend which was in place prior to the day is likely to continue. Therefore, chart purists contend that there are lower lows ahead. From a near-term perspective, it looks like the immediate support at S&P 1960 will be broken at the open. However, we continue to believe that the 1945 level is the key to the intermediate-term trend.
Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
- Japan: -0.57%
- Hong Kong: +0.27%
- Shanghai: -0.03%
- London: -0.94%
- Germany: -1.59%
- France: -1.49%
- Italy: -2.07%
- Spain: -2.34%
Crude Oil Futures: -$0.34 to $101.95
Gold: +$19.70 at $1344.00
Dollar: higher against the yen, euro and pound.
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.511%
Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
- S&P 500: -16.13
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -131
- NASDAQ Composite: -34.21
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The Outlook for U.S. Economic Growth
2. The State of European Banking System
3. The State of Fed Policy
4. The State of the Geopolitical 'Issues' in Ukraine and Iraq
The State of the Trend
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 12 months)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
- Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 1965(ish)
- Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 1985
The State of the Tape
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Neutral
Signal Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
- Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
- Volume Thrust Indicator: Negative
Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
- Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
- Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Positive
Indicator Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
- Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
Model Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
The Early Warning Indicators
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
- S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Condition:
- - Short-Term:
- - Intermediate-Term:
- Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Negative .
The State of the Market Environment
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward because different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading: Positive
Thought For The Day...
"Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn." -- Benjamin Franklin
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
President, Chief Investment Officer Heritage Capital Research
Positions in stocks mentioned: None
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
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