Should We Trust The Thrust (Again)? image

Should We Trust The Thrust (Again)?

As a rules-guided money manager, I scan hundreds of indicators each week. I look at market fundamentals such as monetary conditions, earnings, economic data, and inflation expectations. In addition, I look at a myriad of technical indicators as well as "external" indicators such as invest…
The Mother's Milk of Bull Markets image

The Mother's Milk of Bull Markets

The State of the Market It is said that earnings are the mother's milk of bull markets. This certainly seems to make sense as it is easy to argue that expectations for higher earnings create an environment for rising stock prices. And don't look now fans, but earn…
Where Do We Go From Here? image

Where Do We Go From Here?

The State of the Market Long-time readers know that I'm a fan of historical market cycles. As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. And over the years, I've found this tends to be the case in the stock market, more often than not.
Should We Be Worried About Valuations? image

Should We Be Worried About Valuations?

The State of the Market If you want to start an argument about the state of the stock market, the topic of valuations is usually a pretty good place to start. And to be sure, the topic is fairly complex. For example, valuation levels morph over time. What was extr…
There is Change Afoot in the New Year image

There is Change Afoot in the New Year

The State of the Market Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. It is my sincere hope that everyone enjoyed the long, holiday weekend - I, for one, needed some rest! But now it's time to get back to it. As we venture forth into the "…
Still Looking Ahead, But... image

Still Looking Ahead, But...

The State of the Market To be sure, stocks of almost all sizes, colors and shapes have been looking ahead to better days recently. Days when the COVID vaccination process has been completed. Days when social distancing is a distant memory. Days when you don't have…
Happy Holidays And This Is What Makes A Market image

Happy Holidays And This Is What Makes A Market

The State of the Market: Stop me if you've heard this one before. Stocks have been rallying lately on word that Mitch McConnell's gang isn't planning on heading home for the holidays without a stimulus deal. Well, that and the fact that the FDA is about to approve…
Just For Fun: 2021 Stock Market Projection image

Just For Fun: 2021 Stock Market Projection

The State of the Market Well, it's that time of year again. The time when just about every market analyst on the planet peers into their crystal ball to conjure up a prognostication about what will happen to the market in the coming year. To be sure, I don…
Stopping On The Stairs, Or? image

Stopping On The Stairs, Or?

The State of the Market From my perch, the current state of the market is a good news/bad news situation. On the good news side of the ledger, there is the market's uptrend, favorable seasonality, the fact that end-of-year window dressing is a thing, and a little …
Now Playing: The Slow Grind image

Now Playing: The Slow Grind

The State of the Market For the past two weeks or so, the stock market (as defined by the S&P 500) has been grinding higher on a daily basis. Even when there is disappointing data on the economy, stocks find a way to advance by the time the closing bell rings …