Looking Ahead to Better Days? image

Looking Ahead to Better Days?

With stocks enjoying a pretty solid rally of late, many investors are likely wondering why the mood has changed at the corner of Broad and Wall. Oh, and of course, if the rally will amount to anything more than a bounce in an ongoing bear market. While we can't know the answer to …
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The Bottoming Process?

Although my market missives tend meander a bit at times, this week I'd like to cut directly to the chase. So here goes. Although the action has been more than a little crazy lately and there are a ton of moving parts, the bottom line is I believe the market just might be in the midst of a…
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Making Sense of the Mayhem

Talk about a wild week. Normally I am loathe to recount the happenings in the markets of any calendar period as I find the exercise a bore. But given the rollercoaster ride investors were treated to last week, I think it is important to understand why Ms. Market acted the way she did.…
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Things Are Starting To Break

Anyone watching the action last week knows that technical breaks are happening in lots of markets. For example, my guess is you are aware that stocks broke to a new lows Friday, with the S&P 500 now back to where it stood in November 2020. And you may also be aware that the yield on t…
A Long Slog? image

A Long Slog?

About a month ago - you know, back when stocks were making "higher highs," new buy signals were flashing, and everybody was thinking that we'd seen the worst of the bear market - I remarked privately to a couple colleagues that while things were going well at the time, my biggest worry wa…
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No Pivot For You!

Given Friday's violent move in the stock market, I think it is a good idea to take a step back and review where we've been of late. The idea is to try and understand why the market has done what it has done, in the hopes that we can better know what to possibly expect going forward. So, l…
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New Bull Market? Or...

The question of the day is if the recent rebound in stocks represents the beginning of a new bull market - or - a run-of-the-mill bear market rally, which tend to occur from time to time during extended bearish cycles. To be sure, there are plenty of talking heads for each team to…
The State of the Markets 8.8.22 image

The State of the Markets 8.8.22

I am short on time this morning, so I am going to try something a little different this week. As part of my daily market analysis, I keep a running log (in brief, bullet-point format) of all key news/events/happenings in the market. The goal is to stay on top of everything in order to bot…
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GDP Getting Real

A great many folks, including a host of analysts and financial professionals, seem to believe that the US is currently in recession. They point to last week's negative GDP print as Exhibit A in their argument, suggesting that two consecutive negative quarters is the very definition of rec…
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Keep It Out Of The Ditch

Don't look now fans but it's been a month since the S&P 500 made a fresh new low for this bear market cycle. Yep, that's right, investors haven't had the bejeebers scared out of them nor been forced to face the discouraging stats regarding the degree of index declines since June 16th.…