Daily State of the Markets
All About Rates
In case you've been out on the golf course frantically trying to squeeze in those last few rounds before the weather turns, it is safe to say that the direction of interest rates remains the primary driver of the action in the stock market. From a near-term perspective, anyway.
To…
Time For A Rally?
Perhaps one of the most important qualities necessary to survive long-term in this business is an open mind. As I've lamented a time or two hundred over the years, too many investors are focused on making market predictions and/or about "being right." Yet, as more than forty years of prof…
The Bears Have an Earnings Problem
You really have to give the bear camp credit these days. Despite being just plain wrong about the economy, earnings, and the state of the stock market, our furry friends are sticking to their guns.
Yes, uber-bear Mike Wilson kinda/sorta did a mea culpa a couple months back. But li…
Sticking To The Script?
Good morning and Happy Friday. After enjoying a strong run higher from mid-March through the end of July, the bulls then took a much deserved and highly anticipated break. And in following the seasonal script, the major indices proceeded to pull back in August. Although it wasn't fun, the…
Thoughts On The Macro Themes
With the Fed meeting on tap next week (the rate announcement is slated for 2:00 pm Wednesday with the Powell presser to follow) and the crowd split on whether or not the country's merry band of central bankers will hike rates again or take a pass to get more data, it is fairly easy to arg…
AI or Bust!
I was asked recently to sum up the action in the stock market as succinctly as possible. As long-time readers are likely aware, brevity is not exactly my strong suit. But after giving it some thought, I did manage to come up with a three-word summary, which also doubles as the title of th…
While We Wait...
Make no mistake about it; this week's Fed meeting is the primary focal point for market participants. And from my seat, the outcome and/or the "tone" of Jay Powell's press conference is likely to become the driver of the next near-term trend in both the stock and bond markets.
Whi…
A New Bull Market?
The stock market appears to have spent the vast majority of the last week or so doing, well, a lot of nothing. In short, after the S&P 500 moved to the high end of the recent trading range, which, as our heroes in horns tell us, is certainly an encouraging sign, traders decided to hit…
The Great Debate
On various calls with institutional clients over the past couple of weeks, I have summarized the current state of the market as an ongoing debate between the bulls and bears - playing out daily. I opined that the macro situation boils down to a series of questions. For example: Will the e…
