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Screaming For Attention

After an impressive string of five consecutive monthly gains, during which the venerable S&P 500 gained an eye-popping 1,060.55 points (or +25.3%) during the November through March period, it now appears that the bears are finally (as in FINALLY!) attempting to get back in the game.
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Stick With the Bulls

Long-time readers know that I tend to hang with the glass-is-at-least-half-full crowd when it comes to the longer-term market outlook. The reasons are simple. First and foremost, stocks move higher over time. Yes, I recognize that this trend, which has largely persisted since trading bega…
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Not So Fast, Please

To be sure, what I like to call "Fed Expectations" has been the primary driver of the market action for some time now. You know the drill. When economic data or Fedspeak supports the idea of rate cuts in the near future, stocks rise. And vice versa. Simple, right? From my seat, this and t…
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Not If, But When

The stock market's latest joyride to the upside appears to have hit a snag. Well, for now at least, anyway. Up until last week, the bulls were large and in charge based on the idea that (a) the economy and in turn, earnings, were doing just fine, thank you and (b) the Fed was about to cut…
The Cycle Roadmap for 2024 image

The Cycle Roadmap for 2024

The drivers of the stock market at this point in the game are fairly clear. The Fed's next move, the state of the economy, and whether or not 2024 earnings can hold up to the rather lofty expectations appear to be the top factors on investors' minds these days. So far at least, th…
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Making It Official

It took a while (as in over 500 days), but the S&P 500 and DJIA finally managed to close at fresh all-time highs on Friday. While the bears may argue that the so-called "breakout" must prove itself in the coming days/weeks (Martin Pring was famous for suggesting an additional 3% was n…
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Happy Holidays Indeed

Long-time readers know that I am a card-carrying member of The-glass-is-at-least-half-full club. As such, it shouldn't surprise anyone that I have maintained a fairly upbeat view throughout this year. On the economy. On earnings. On the stock market. On the consumer. And, of course, on in…
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Words Matter

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Pullbacks in the markets end quickly when some Fed official, or better yet, a couple FOMC members say something "dovish." You know, something like, "We see signs of progress on inflation." Or "Policy is appropriate given the current data." Or, well…
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All About Rates

In case you've been out on the golf course frantically trying to squeeze in those last few rounds before the weather turns, it is safe to say that the direction of interest rates remains the primary driver of the action in the stock market. From a near-term perspective, anyway. To…
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Time For A Rally?

Perhaps one of the most important qualities necessary to survive long-term in this business is an open mind. As I've lamented a time or two hundred over the years, too many investors are focused on making market predictions and/or about "being right." Yet, as more than forty years of prof…