State of the Markets
Where Our Models and Indicators Stand
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Don't look now fans, but the first half of 2025 is in the books. As we embark on the second half of the year, I thought it would be a good idea to review the key areas of analysis for the stock market.
Such a review includes my Primary Market indicators (which are designed to iden…
Here We Go Again?
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There can be little argument that the stock market has made a remarkable recovery since the tariff-induced doom days of early April. If my calculator is correct, the S&P 500 has surged +21.95% since the closing low seen on April 7 through Friday's close. And for those of you keeping s…
Should We Worry About War?
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The conflict between Israel, Iran, and now the United States, continues to be the focal point for investors large and small. While the bears contend that the escalating war in the Middle East will cause oil and, in turn, inflation to spike, both the markets have held up remarkably well th…
Recession? What Recession?
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Greetings from Paris. My wife and I are traveling abroad this week and next, so I'm going to try to keep my reports brief and focus on the key drivers of the market action.
U.S. equity markets finished the week with solid gains, driven by surprisingly resilient economic data and e…
Are Valuations A Problem?
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While Ms. Market's game can change at the drop of a hat/tweet, it appears stocks have spent the last couple of weeks digesting the latest onslaught of news from the likes of Moody's, the White House, and the courts. The good news is the major indices have not succumbed to bears' latest ef…
Correcting The Correction
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With the S&P 500 up about 23% from its April 7th low and just 3% from the February 19th all-time high, the question of the day is how far can the bulls run before taking a much needed rest?
Yes, it is true that our heroes in horns have produced a handful of healthy
Clear Sailing Ahead?
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The major stock market indices basically did a lot of nothing last week. Sure, there was some tariff news to deal with, some big earnings reports, the usual spate of economic data, and even a Fed meeting. But in the end, the S&P finished within 1% of where it was the week prior.
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The Mood Has Improved
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Don't look now fans, but the US stocks were higher for the week – again, with the S&P 500 notching its first back-to-back weekly advances since January. For those keeping score at home, the venerable blue-chip index finished the week on a nine-day heater – the longest…
Worst Case Off The Table
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Despite Monday's dance to the downside on the back of Trump talking openly about firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the S&P 500 enjoyed a pretty good week. If my calculator is correct, the venerable blue-chip index sports a gain of +4.6% for the week of April 21 while the much-maligne…
