A Long Slog? image

A Long Slog?

By: David Moenning

About a month ago - you know, back when stocks were making "higher highs," new buy signals were flashing, and everybody was thinking that we'd seen the worst of the bear market - I remarked privately to a couple colleagues that while things were going well at the time, my biggest worry wa…
No Pivot For You! image

No Pivot For You!

By: David Moenning

Given Friday's violent move in the stock market, I think it is a good idea to take a step back and review where we've been of late. The idea is to try and understand why the market has done what it has done, in the hopes that we can better know what to possibly expect going forward. So, l…
New Bull Market? Or... image

New Bull Market? Or...

By: David Moenning

The question of the day is if the recent rebound in stocks represents the beginning of a new bull market - or - a run-of-the-mill bear market rally, which tend to occur from time to time during extended bearish cycles. To be sure, there are plenty of talking heads for each team to…
The State of the Markets 8.8.22 image

The State of the Markets 8.8.22

By: David Moenning

I am short on time this morning, so I am going to try something a little different this week. As part of my daily market analysis, I keep a running log (in brief, bullet-point format) of all key news/events/happenings in the market. The goal is to stay on top of everything in order to bot…
GDP Getting Real image

GDP Getting Real

By: David Moenning

A great many folks, including a host of analysts and financial professionals, seem to believe that the US is currently in recession. They point to last week's negative GDP print as Exhibit A in their argument, suggesting that two consecutive negative quarters is the very definition of rec…
Keep It Out Of The Ditch image

Keep It Out Of The Ditch

By: David Moenning

Don't look now fans but it's been a month since the S&P 500 made a fresh new low for this bear market cycle. Yep, that's right, investors haven't had the bejeebers scared out of them nor been forced to face the discouraging stats regarding the degree of index declines since June 16th.…
What Will It Take? image

What Will It Take?

By: David Moenning

Stocks are starting the week on a weak note, basically following the leads from Europe and China (where a shutdown in Macau seems to have ignited COVID fears again). However, it is worth noting on this fine summer morning that the "action" has been improving of late. As in, there weren't …
Some Good News To Consider image

Some Good News To Consider

By: David Moenning

This year's drubbing in the stock and bond markets have left investors wondering, when will it end? The consensus among analysts on the subject is that the bear ought to go into hibernation once the market has "visibility" on a number of issues including, the Fed's terminal point, peak in…
Hope the Seatbelts Work image

Hope the Seatbelts Work

By: David Moenning

There is an awful lot of talk about a recession these days. And while everyone is talking about the concept, the views on when and/or whether or not the good 'ol USofA will fall into recession vary widely. For example, on this fine summer Tuesday morning alone, Bloomberg reports t…
False Summit image

False Summit

By: David Moenning

In last week's missive, I asked the question, what else can go wrong? The basic point was that, according to the bull camp, perhaps all the bad news was out and that stocks had already priced in all the bad stuff. Extrapolating on the idea, our Heroes in Horns were arguing that maybe, jus…