State of the Markets
The State of the Rotation Trade
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Unless you've been living in a cave, you are likely aware that the "Rotation Trade" has been the toast of the town this year. Apparently the powers that be decided that the stock market was going to look a lot different in 2026 than it has over the last several years. You know, where comp…
The New Fear Trade
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Don't look now fans but there is a new "fear trade" in town. You remember how these work, right? To review, a fear trade starts with traders shouting their negative narratives from the rooftops while shorting stocks at the same time. "The sky is falling!" they proclaim. "The mar…
CEOs vs Trader Bros
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Perhaps the biggest story in the market over the last couple months has been the mean reversion/catch-up/rotation trade between the market's "haves" (megacap tech) and "have nots" (small caps, cyclicals, value, etc). The idea behind the move is simple enough. When one segment of the marke…
Big Picture 2026: Up On The Ladder
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While we wait on some big tech earnings (MSFT, META, TSLA, and AAPL all report this week) I thought it would be a good idea to continue with our review of the stock market's macro environment. So today, we'll attempt to tackle the issue of valuations.
To be sure, this is a tricky …
Big Picture 2026: Inflation (Is Not a Problem)
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Last week, we began the process of overviewing the big-picture macro drivers of the stock market as we explored the state of the economy and expectations for earnings. The bottom line take was the economy appears to be doing just fine, thank you, and the consensus for earnings growth this…
The Big Picture 2026 - The Economy & Earnings
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With the holiday decorations now back in their storage bins and investment professionals having returned to their desks, it appears that the serious work in the markets for the new year has officially begun. And so far at least, investors seem to have an optimistic outlook for the stock m…
What The Cycles Say About 2026
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Before I put away the keyboard for the Holiday Season, I thought it might be a good idea to look ahead and see what the historical cycles have to say about the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.
Yes, it is certainly true that investors have a lot to consider as we he…
The State of the AI Trade
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Don't look now fans, but the AI trade - you know, that high-octane corner of the market loaded with new-fangled semiconductor chips, cloud plays large and small, and those mind-bending large-language models - is still kicking up plenty of dust in the market. The question, of course, is wh…
Run of the Mill Specwreck
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To be sure, there is a great deal of angst in the markets these days. Truly remarkable earnings reports have been met with heavy selling. Talk of bubbles abound on a daily basis. And that favorable seasonality the bulls were counting on has been a complete no-show so far this year.
