State of the Markets
Recession? What Recession?
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Greetings from Paris. My wife and I are traveling abroad this week and next, so I'm going to try to keep my reports brief and focus on the key drivers of the market action.
U.S. equity markets finished the week with solid gains, driven by surprisingly resilient economic data and e…
Are Valuations A Problem?
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While Ms. Market's game can change at the drop of a hat/tweet, it appears stocks have spent the last couple of weeks digesting the latest onslaught of news from the likes of Moody's, the White House, and the courts. The good news is the major indices have not succumbed to bears' latest ef…
Correcting The Correction
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With the S&P 500 up about 23% from its April 7th low and just 3% from the February 19th all-time high, the question of the day is how far can the bulls run before taking a much needed rest?
Yes, it is true that our heroes in horns have produced a handful of healthy
Clear Sailing Ahead?
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The major stock market indices basically did a lot of nothing last week. Sure, there was some tariff news to deal with, some big earnings reports, the usual spate of economic data, and even a Fed meeting. But in the end, the S&P finished within 1% of where it was the week prior.
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The Mood Has Improved
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Don't look now fans, but the US stocks were higher for the week – again, with the S&P 500 notching its first back-to-back weekly advances since January. For those keeping score at home, the venerable blue-chip index finished the week on a nine-day heater – the longest…
Worst Case Off The Table
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Despite Monday's dance to the downside on the back of Trump talking openly about firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the S&P 500 enjoyed a pretty good week. If my calculator is correct, the venerable blue-chip index sports a gain of +4.6% for the week of April 21 while the much-maligne…
Big Questions Remain
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Investors can't be blamed for feeling a little better about things these days. Especially when compared with where the S&P 500 was two short weeks ago. If my calculator is correct, the venerable blue-chip index is up +9.3% from the intraday panic low seen on April 7th. And while the m…
Changing The Playbook
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One of the most important lessons I've learned over my 38 years of managing people's money for a living is Wall Street traders love their historical analogs. As such, we've developed various playbooks to track what traders typically do given various market conditions.
For the past…
Assuming The Worst
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Investors - especially those managing big hedge funds and/or the books of Wall Street banks - look to be assuming the worst right now. Assuming the worst about tariffs. The worst about economic growth. The worst about inflation. And in turn, the worst about earnings. So much worry, so lit…
