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The State of the Markets 8.8.22

By: David Moenning

I am short on time this morning, so I am going to try something a little different this week. As part of my daily market analysis, I keep a running log (in brief, bullet-point format) of all key news/events/happenings in the market. The goal is to stay on top of everything in order to bot…
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GDP Getting Real

By: David Moenning

A great many folks, including a host of analysts and financial professionals, seem to believe that the US is currently in recession. They point to last week's negative GDP print as Exhibit A in their argument, suggesting that two consecutive negative quarters is the very definition of rec…
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Keep It Out Of The Ditch

By: David Moenning

Don't look now fans but it's been a month since the S&P 500 made a fresh new low for this bear market cycle. Yep, that's right, investors haven't had the bejeebers scared out of them nor been forced to face the discouraging stats regarding the degree of index declines since June 16th.…
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What Will It Take?

By: David Moenning

Stocks are starting the week on a weak note, basically following the leads from Europe and China (where a shutdown in Macau seems to have ignited COVID fears again). However, it is worth noting on this fine summer morning that the "action" has been improving of late. As in, there weren't …
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Some Good News To Consider

By: David Moenning

This year's drubbing in the stock and bond markets have left investors wondering, when will it end? The consensus among analysts on the subject is that the bear ought to go into hibernation once the market has "visibility" on a number of issues including, the Fed's terminal point, peak in…
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Hope the Seatbelts Work

By: David Moenning

There is an awful lot of talk about a recession these days. And while everyone is talking about the concept, the views on when and/or whether or not the good 'ol USofA will fall into recession vary widely. For example, on this fine summer Tuesday morning alone, Bloomberg reports t…
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False Summit

By: David Moenning

In last week's missive, I asked the question, what else can go wrong? The basic point was that, according to the bull camp, perhaps all the bad news was out and that stocks had already priced in all the bad stuff. Extrapolating on the idea, our Heroes in Horns were arguing that maybe, jus…
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What Else Can Go Wrong?

By: David Moenning

To be sure, the action in the stock market has been a bit schizophrenic of late. Up one day, down the next, with no follow-through seen in either direction last week. As such, the key question in my mind is, where are we now? From a very short-term perspective, it looks like Wall …
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Closer To The End Than The Beginning?

To be sure, it's a very busy time for anyone managing money in the markets. As such, I'm going to provide an executive summary of what I see happening at this time. Summary Stock market officially in "growth scare" mode. Worries about recession and EPS est…
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Have Stocks Lost Touch With Reality?

By: David Moenning

As I have mentioned a time or two hundred over the years, I believe the stock market is... everybody join in now... "a discounting mechanism of future expectations." So, with the S&P 500 closing down for a sixth consecutive week - something that hasn't happened since the not-so fun ye…