State of the Markets
The Better Argument?
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The kids are back in school. The NFL season is underway. The leaves are starting to turn. And there is an ever-so slight hint of fall in the air. All of which means one thing for stock market investors... The seasonal "fall swoon" period is upon us.
I've never been exactly sure wh…
The Great Rotation? Or...
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I opined last week that the market's gains during this cycle have been driven largely by a handful of secular investing themes such as the revolution in computing, robotics, quantum, and the increasingly large need for additional electricity capacity. The bottom line here is that if you h…
It's a "What You Own" Market
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While attending our daughter's wedding reception gatherings in England, the subject of the US stock market came up in conversation quite often. Although the views of the market by the blokes residing on the other side of the pond were interesting and varied widely, I was asked for my take…
All About Earnings, Still
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Don't look now fans, but the S&P 500 is trading almost exactly at all-time highs on this fine summer Monday morning. Never mind the overbought conditions, the exuberant sentiment, and the extremely high valuations that technicians have been warning about. Forget about the economy slow…
You Knew It Was Coming
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You knew it was coming, right? After marching steadily higher, day after day, for the past five weeks, the bears finally got back in the game on the back of a shockingly weak jobs report.
To be sure, the stock market was "set up" for some kind of decline, pullback, correction, and…
Anticipation?
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One of the key questions of the day is if the inflation that so many have been anticipating this year is starting to percolate. Or, as the bulls are quick to point out, based on the recent data, maybe it's just not coming.
One of the bear camp's key arguments for why we should not…
Looking On The Bright Side
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Here we go again. Over the weekend, new tariff threats began flying in all directions. As in new 30% tariffs for Mexico, Canada, and the EU. And just before that there were the "letters" that went out to various countries informing them of the "take it or leave it" tariff terms. If one di…
Where Our Models and Indicators Stand
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Don't look now fans, but the first half of 2025 is in the books. As we embark on the second half of the year, I thought it would be a good idea to review the key areas of analysis for the stock market.
Such a review includes my Primary Market indicators (which are designed to iden…
Here We Go Again?
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There can be little argument that the stock market has made a remarkable recovery since the tariff-induced doom days of early April. If my calculator is correct, the S&P 500 has surged +21.95% since the closing low seen on April 7 through Friday's close. And for those of you keeping s…
