Sticking To The Script? image

Sticking To The Script?

By: David Moenning

Good morning and Happy Friday. After enjoying a strong run higher from mid-March through the end of July, the bulls then took a much deserved and highly anticipated break. And in following the seasonal script, the major indices proceeded to pull back in August. Although it wasn't fun, the…
Thoughts On The Macro Themes image

Thoughts On The Macro Themes

By: David Moenning

With the Fed meeting on tap next week (the rate announcement is slated for 2:00 pm Wednesday with the Powell presser to follow) and the crowd split on whether or not the country's merry band of central bankers will hike rates again or take a pass to get more data, it is fairly easy to arg…
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AI or Bust!

By: David Moenning

I was asked recently to sum up the action in the stock market as succinctly as possible. As long-time readers are likely aware, brevity is not exactly my strong suit. But after giving it some thought, I did manage to come up with a three-word summary, which also doubles as the title of th…
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While We Wait...

By: David Moenning

Make no mistake about it; this week's Fed meeting is the primary focal point for market participants. And from my seat, the outcome and/or the "tone" of Jay Powell's press conference is likely to become the driver of the next near-term trend in both the stock and bond markets. Whi…
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A New Bull Market?

By: David Moenning

The stock market appears to have spent the vast majority of the last week or so doing, well, a lot of nothing. In short, after the S&P 500 moved to the high end of the recent trading range, which, as our heroes in horns tell us, is certainly an encouraging sign, traders decided to hit…
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The Great Debate

By: David Moenning

On various calls with institutional clients over the past couple of weeks, I have summarized the current state of the market as an ongoing debate between the bulls and bears - playing out daily. I opined that the macro situation boils down to a series of questions. For example: Will the e…
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What's It Gonna Be?

By: David Moenning

With the macro backdrop remaining fairly fluid these days, it appears that market players are in search of the appropriate levels - for stocks, bonds, fed funds futures, gold, and just about anything else that might be impacted by a burgeoning crisis. A week ago, traders were posi…
The Question Of The Day Is... image

The Question Of The Day Is...

By: David Moenning

The question of the day is simple. Are investors dealing with another banking crisis, which poses what is called "systemic" risk (I.E. Risks that threaten the entire banking system) or what my colleague Jeff Pietsch, CFA terms "idiosyncratic" risk - meaning risks that are specific to each…
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How Did This Happen?

By: David Moenning

And just like that, the game has changed. Almost completely. Gone is all the fretting about inflation, the Fed's final few rate hikes, and the corresponding impacts on the economy and earnings. Instead, investors of all shapes and sizes find themselves faced with a banking crisis.
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Bostic Boost

By: David Moenning

Until Thursday afternoon, the path of least resistance for both stock and bond prices appeared to be down. Given the macro narrative, this actually made some sense. After all, with February's inflation and economic data coming in hotter/better than expected and the Fed pledging to remain …