Of #FOMO and #OnHold image

Of #FOMO and #OnHold

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: Stocks remain overbought, sentiment remains at extreme levels, and IMO, complacency has set in. And yet, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices continue to march higher on a daily basis. As such, the bears are sure to be asking, how can this be? Fro…
The Trend Is Your Friend, If... image

The Trend Is Your Friend, If...

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: After the best return for the month of August since 1984 (+7.0% for S&P 500 index and +7.19% with dividends reinvested) it appears that the trend is indeed an investors best friend here. And while it's been a little bumpy, the venerable blue…
Is The Bull Argument Too Easy These Days? image

Is The Bull Argument Too Easy These Days?

By: David Moenning

As a reminder, the market's primary cycles generally do not change often. However, I still like to start each week with a clear understanding of what type of market we are dealing with. For me, a quick glance at the color of the Primary Cycle board and the weekly/monthly S&P graphs be…
Two "Game Changers" Improve Outlook image

Two "Game Changers" Improve Outlook

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: The combination of Abbott's new rapid COVID test and Jay Powell's announcement that the Fed is taking a new tack on their approach to inflation pushed the S&P 500 to another all-time high on Thursday. While both can be viewed as "game change…
Party On Wayne? image

Party On Wayne?

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: In looking at the potential for a countertrend move to develop, the best way to summarize the situation might be to say, see last week's report entitled, "The Song Remains The Same.…
Are There Cracks In The Foundation? image

Are There Cracks In The Foundation?

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: The question from our last technical review was if the stock market was "breaking out" to the upside. Cutting to the chase, the answer depends on what "market" you are looking at. To be sure, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have broken out t…
Stocks Looking For On-Time Arrival image

Stocks Looking For On-Time Arrival

By: David Moenning

Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. Although the market's primary cycles do not change often, I still like to start each week with a clear understanding of what type of market we are dealing with. For me, a quick glance at the color of the cycle board and the we…
A Signal To Ignore? image

A Signal To Ignore?

By: David Moenning

*** We are experiencing technical problems with our email send system. We are working on the problem and hope to have it resolved early next week. We apologize for the inconvenience.*** Executive Summary: With recent data showing the initi…
The Song Remains The Same image

The Song Remains The Same

By: David Moenning

Executive Summary: As the title of this morning's report indicates, the condition of the Early Warning board is largely unchanged. It is clear that stocks are overbought, and it can easily be argued that "the table is set" for some downside action. However, I cont…
There Are Risks To Be Considered image

There Are Risks To Be Considered

By: David Moenning

As a reminder, we have made a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. The goal is to create a series of more concise, bite-sized reports, which will be published on a daily basis. Below is the weekly publishing schedule: