Daily State of the Markets
One Chart Explains It All
Investors can't really be blamed for scratching their heads regarding the recent action in the stock market. One minute, stocks were down -10% on all things Iran. The quick dip certainly made some sense as oil prices surged, taking inflation expectations higher along with them. In turn, t…
One Chart Explains It All
Investors can't really be blamed for scratching their heads regarding the recent action in the stock market. One minute, stocks were down -10% on all things Iran. The quick dip certainly made some sense as oil prices surged, taking inflation expectations higher along with them. In turn, t…
Giving Peace A Chance
The current market remains driven by the headlines relating to the conflict playing out in the Middle East. To be sure, traders have shifted their focus from selling AI-related technology/software positions to what I'll call the "war playbook."
It will suffice to say this is not t…
The State of the Rotation Trade
Unless you've been living in a cave, you are likely aware that the "Rotation Trade" has been the toast of the town this year. Apparently the powers that be decided that the stock market was going to look a lot different in 2026 than it has over the last several years. You know, where comp…
The New Fear Trade
Don't look now fans but there is a new "fear trade" in town. You remember how these work, right? To review, a fear trade starts with traders shouting their negative narratives from the rooftops while shorting stocks at the same time. "The sky is falling!" they proclaim. "The mar…
CEOs vs Trader Bros
Perhaps the biggest story in the market over the last couple months has been the mean reversion/catch-up/rotation trade between the market's "haves" (megacap tech) and "have nots" (small caps, cyclicals, value, etc). The idea behind the move is simple enough. When one segment of the marke…
Big Picture 2026: Up On The Ladder
While we wait on some big tech earnings (MSFT, META, TSLA, and AAPL all report this week) I thought it would be a good idea to continue with our review of the stock market's macro environment. So today, we'll attempt to tackle the issue of valuations.
To be sure, this is a tricky …
Big Picture 2026: Inflation (Is Not a Problem)
Last week, we began the process of overviewing the big-picture macro drivers of the stock market as we explored the state of the economy and expectations for earnings. The bottom line take was the economy appears to be doing just fine, thank you, and the consensus for earnings growth this…
The Big Picture 2026 - The Economy & Earnings
With the holiday decorations now back in their storage bins and investment professionals having returned to their desks, it appears that the serious work in the markets for the new year has officially begun. And so far at least, investors seem to have an optimistic outlook for the stock m…
