Daily State of the Markets
The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
Good Morning. After eight consecutive up days and green finishes seen in twelve of the last fourteen sessions, even the most ardent bulls will likely admit that a pause might be in order right about now. So, with Ben Bernanke ready to launch into in his semi-annual chat with Congress toda…
The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part II
Good Morning. With the stock market indices clearly in an uptrend at the present time (although a pullback in the near-term would surprise no one), this appears to be a good time to continue our look at the various valuation metrics. This morning, we will take a look at the Price-to-Divid…
Lesson Learned: Price Cannot Deviate From Itself
Good Morning. Let's be honest; there are times when figuring out Ms. Market's game can be more than a little challenging. And in my humble opinion, this is one of those times. One minute tapering is a huge problem and interest rates are spiking. However, twelve days and 800 Dow points lat…
Learning to Say, "It's Not What I Do"
Good Morning. First off, I'd like to thank all of you that took the time to communicate your thoughts on our Global Macro series. Your kind words were sincerely appreciated. And since the responses were unanimously positive, we will make a habit of checking in on the macro themes on a mon…
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part III
Good Morning. With stocks in an uptrend at the present time and nothing much new to report, we're going to finish up what will now become at the very least a bimonthly review of the global macro picture. This morning we will take an executive summary look at Japan, Commodities, and Curren…
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part II
Good Morning. Our best guess is that the U.S. stock market is continuing to recover from the "tapering = tightening" freak-out that occurred from 6/19 through 6/24. Some will argue that stocks cannot survive rising rates for long while others (more specifically, those dressed in their hor…
Action Speaks Louder Than Words
Good Morning. Are we having fun yet? For a seventh consecutive day, stocks were whipped around in a violent fashion by the big boys and their computer toys yesterday. The Dow once again put up a triple-digit move, this time a dive of 206 points. The problem is that each move tends to reve…
The State of the Speculation
Good Morning. For the fifth day in a row (and the eleventh out of the last twelve), the DJIA experienced intraday volatility exceeding 100 points yesterday. While volatility in and of itself isn't a big deal these days, we do have to recognize that this represents a change in the market's…
Will We Be Talking Taper Soon?
Good Morning. The question of the day is whether or not the Federal Reserve Board will begin "talking taper" at this week's FOMC meeting. Although we will find out soon enough (it is a safe bet that Ben Bernanke will address the subject at his press conference which will be held at the en…
Do The Bears Have A Case?
Good Morning. This time the bears refused to be run over. This time, after a quick 50-point swing upwards in the S&P 500, the short-sellers were rewarded for selling into some resistance. This time, the good economic news (the NFIB Small Business Index hit the second highest level sin…