Daily State of the Markets
Have The Bears Found Their Raison d'Etre?
Good morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. The key to the markets in the early going on this fine Monday morning is the apparent easing of tensions with North Korea. For example, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said over the weekend he'd seen "no intel…
Quick Take: Job Market Continues to Improve, Bulls Have Work to Do
The first Friday of a new month means that jobs are in focus - so let's get right to the numbers. The Labor Department reported the economy created 209,000 new jobs in the month of July, which was well above the Reuters consensus expectation for 183,000 new jobs. In addition, the nation's…
Playing The Game According To Conditions
For some time now, I've been summing up my big-picture take on the stock market by suggesting that (a) it's a bull market until proven otherwise and (b) risk factors are elevated. To review, the primary risks I'm referencing are the valuation metrics, which, in general, are currently at h…
On The Other Hand...
Yesterday, we explored the historical cycles of the stock market. I showed that a composite of the one-year seasonal, the four-year Presidential, and the ten-year decennial cycles projects a nasty decline could begin any time now. However, I opined that since the market seems to be on goo…
Not A Pretty Picture
With the stock market having gained ground yet again last month (July's return of 1.93% for the S&P 500 was the second best of 2017) and sporting a return of 10.4% on the year, the question of the day is, where do we go from here?
The bulls argue that it will be onward and upw…
Improving Conditions, But...
Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. Russia, Trump's Tweets as well as his latest hiring/firing, a big M&A deal, and North Korea's latest missile tests are in focus to start the week.
But since it's the start of a new week, let's focus on our o…
Quick Take: Tech Selloff, Economic Data in Focus
Here's your "quick take" on this morning's market...
Yesterday's sudden selloff in tech, the failure of the "skinny repeal," disappointing earnings from both Amazon and Starbucks, U.S. GDP, and the surprisingly good economic data across the pond are in focus this morning.
…
Mid-Year Valuation Review
One of the key issues in the stock market revolves around the idea of valuations. Cutting to the chase, the question is whether or not the growth rate of the economy and, in turn, earnings, is strong enough to justify what most see as lofty valuation levels in stocks.
One of the k…
The Next Big Worry? Well, Never Mind...
A couple weeks back, I opined that the next big problem for the stock market might revolve around global central bankers changing their monetary policy tune on a coordinated basis. The idea was simple. Stocks have enjoyed the benefits of capital creation via global QE programs since the c…