Daily State of the Markets

So Bad That It's Good?

One of the hallmarks of stock market declines seen in what we call the "QE Era" has been the "V-Bottom." If one looks back at the declines seen since 2010, the vast majority of the corrections have traced out a "V" pattern on a chart as the emotional pullbacks have generally been met with…

Watching The Action (And What To Do Now)

Over the years I've learned that it is usually not a good idea to read too much into any single session of Ms. Market's game. In other words, rarely does a single day make - or break - a trend. However, I have to say that Thursday's much ballyhooed bounce, which was expected to be a thing…

Look For A Bounce, But Beware Of...

Well that was interesting. One minute the sky was falling with the Dow down more than 550 points and the S&P 500 having broken an important line in the sand. And the next, well, pundits were falling all over themselves trying to be get on record calling the bottom. Such is life in the…

The Message Is...

Good morning. While there isn't always a "message" to be gleaned from the stock market action, there are times when you can get a hint about what is happening in Ms. Market's game by studying how and why things unfold at the corner of Broad and Wall. So, let's run down yesterday's action …

If It's A Bear...

Good morning. With the S&P 500 down 8.0% on the year, it is safe to say that 2016 isn't off to a great start so far (for those keeping score at home, this has been the worst start to a new calendar year on record) . With the S&P 500 down 10.9% from the most recent (11/3/15) high a…

Is The Game Changing?

Good morning. Let me cut right to the chase this morning by saying that unless the bulls can get their act together and produce some buying that is driven by more than algorithmic-induced trend-following and/or short-covering, is prompted by more than an oversold condition and a search fo…

China Pulling Out All The Stops And...

Good morning. The bad news is that China's Shanghai and Shenzen market indices fell more than 2% overnight (Shanghai -2.41%, Shenzen -3.47%). The good news is that European and U.S. markets don't seem to care. Based on the action in both Europe and the U.S. this week, it would app…

Keeping an Eye on China and...

Good morning. Now that we all know what the focal points of this market are, namely the yuan, China's stock market, and oil, it is probably a good idea to start off this fine Tuesday morning with a review of the latest on the subjects. This morning, stocks are rebounding smartly a…

By Now You Probably Know...

Good morning. By now, you are probably already aware that the stock market has gotten off to the worst start of any year in history. So much for the favorable seasonality. So much for the asset allocation work that typically helps equities at this time of year. And so much for all of the …

A Reprieve, But For How Long?

Good morning. Given all the excitement we've seen this week, I personally find it remarkable that this is only the fifth trading day of 2016! And after the worst 4-day start to a new calendar year ever, it looks like today is going to be another wild one. Only this time, it looks like the…