Daily State of the Markets
Is Sentiment Flashing A Warning To Investors?
To be sure, correctly analyzing investor sentiment and then acting accordingly in one's portfolio can be challenging over the long-term. Everybody knows to be wary of the crowd when everyone sees the same thing and/or everyone is expecting the same thing to happen in a given market. Yet a…
2014: Macro Crowd Getting It Wrong, Again
So, are we having fun yet in this year's stock market? If you followed the crowd's "consensus" view on what was supposed to happen this year, the answer is probably a resounding "No!"
For those keeping score at home, this is the second consecutive year in which the self-proclaimed…
Iraq is Back - Is It Time To Panic?
In case you've been out on the golf course, vacationing with the kids, or simply otherwise occupied, the situation in Iraq has become the primary focal point of the markets over the last few days. Thus, the question of the day is if geopolitics in Iraq will become the next "crisis" the st…
Has The VIX Issued An Important Sell Signal?
Back in March, we spent some time exploring how investors could use the VIX in order to help them determine safe entry points in the market after corrections. We looked at a couple of different buy signals that were tied to the VIX. As we
Confused? The Current Market Environment Is...
Much to the chagrin of those residing in the glass-is-half-empty camp (who, by the way, felt that May was definitely going to be their time), stocks have embarked on a new leg higher. The breakout to the upside, and then more importantly, the follow-through and confirmation by multiple in…
Is The Wall of Worry Crumbling?
With the stock major averages improving almost daily, the mood of the market is definitely on the mend. But think back... How long ago was it exactly that just about everyone on the planet was absolutely, positively sure that the stock market was going to take a dive? Remember all the tal…
There's Good News In Them Thar Charts
This just in... We interrupt your regularly scheduled review of the big-picture market environment models with... some good news. Yes, fans, the bulls appear to have rediscovered their mojo.
What a difference a few days makes in this business, right? Just about a week ago, traders…
The State of the Bull Market: What Do the Models Say?
It is safe to say that the current stock market is frustrating. But unlike 2013, when the environment favored the bulls for the vast majority of the year and it was the bears that wound up pounding their heads up against the wall, this year, both teams appear to be experiencing some frust…
Is The Market Environment Improving?
In a recent missive ("Can The Market Survive the Mo-Mo Meltdown?") we noted that momentum meltdowns don't necessarily lead to serious declines in the blue-chip indices. We looked back at history and found that there have been times (5 to be exact) where the Dow and S&P weren't dragged…
Time For A Portfolio Pep Talk
To say that this is a tough market may be the understatement of the year so far. Lots of areas are getting beaten to a pulp daily, the economy has sputtered, the masses have been fooled by the direction of interest rates, there is a new so-called crisis every time you turn around, and as …