Daily State of the Markets
Big, Round Numbers
The media's fascination with round numbers on the major indices - especially the Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) - is one of the great mysteries of the investing game. When the Dow breaks through an important milestone, there tend to be celebrations (remember Dow 10,000?). But whenever …
Does Yellen See A Bubble In Stocks?
Does anyone else find the public's obsession with identifying the next bubble amusing? Almost by definition, a bubble forms - and then ultimately bursts - when no one is looking.
To be sure, there wasn't a public outcry in early 2000 when one could purchase something like twenty o…
What Can Be Learned When The Algos Are In Charge?
The goal of this report, which can oftentimes be classified as a meandering morning market missive, is to identify the primary drivers of the stock market. To be sure, there are certainly times when the drivers of the action are actually quite easy to identify. And then there are days lik…
What Kind of Bull Market Is This Anyway?
It's getting to be that time of year. The time when investors start peering into their crystal balls in order to try and ascertain what might be in store for the next year. While making predictions about what the stock market might or might not do over a twelve month period tends to be a …
Expectations For The Fed's Next Move
The algos, or rather the math geeks that program the algos for the likes of Getco, Goldman, Citadel, Renaissance, and a handful of other banks/hedge funds/HFT outfits that can trade at the speed of light, appear to be a bit confused at the moment. On Thursday the S&P 500 plunged 1.32 …
Did Twitter Mark "The Top"?
After spending much of the week in meetings, airports and rental cars, it is good to be back in the saddle this morning. While business travel can certainly be a chore at times (couldn't the folks at American Airlines have figured out that the plane needed scheduled maintenance BEFORE the…
What Do The Cycles Say For November?
After two consecutive days of declines, the question of the day is if the current rally, which began in early October, is just resting or about to morph into the type of month-long corrective phases that have been prevalent since June?
Since the middle of April, the trend of the s…
Did Bernanke Put The Taper Back On The Table?
It looks like Mr. Bernanke may want to go out in style. Just about the time investors around the globe had concluded that there was simply no way the Fed could begin tapering the size of its QE programs before March or April of next year, it looks like Wednesday's FOMC statement put the t…
If You Must Buy-and-Hold, Be Like Buffett
It is always interesting to review comments of the work that is done under the "Daily State of the Markets" banner. On Friday, the long-standing question of active investing (i.e. employing a buy and sell approach) versus passive investing (buy and hold forever) was explored. And as expec…
Active vs. Passive: You're Kidding, Right?
To be sure, there is no shortage of free "research" available these days. Everywhere one turns, there is a fresh white paper from any number of experts espousing this or that. But recently there has been a raft of papers on the question of passive investing versus active investing. And cu…