State of the Markets
The Key Question in the Market Remains...
One constant in investing is the game is always changing. One minute the focus is on Europe. The next it's on an earthquake in Japan, then the Fed, unrest in the Middle East, the economy, QE, earnings, commodity prices, inflation/deflation, the state of the economy, emerging markets, and …
Did The VIX Have It Right?
Calm appeared to be restored to the markets on Thursday as the fear of what could happen in the emerging markets waned and the word "crisis" was barely used. Traders adorned in rose-colored Ray-Ban's suggested that the actions taken as well as those threatened by various governments and c…
Is It Time To Move Into Crisis Mode?
The title of yesterday's missive was, "Is There Really a Crisis in Emerging Markets? Or..." The primary point made was that although stocks are off their recent highs and things have become much more volatile this year, the charts of the greenback, gold and bonds did not seem to confirm t…
Is There Really a Crisis in Emerging Markets, Or...?
Overnight Monday, China injected liquidity into the banking system to help stem the tide on their cash crunch. India raised rates. Nothing bad happened in Argentina. Then after the close on Tuesday, Turkey raised rates from 7.75 percent to 12.0 percent to defend the lira. As a result, the…
Emerging Markets Mess: Blame It On The Fed?
It is yet unclear as to whether or not the current mess in the emerging markets will morph into a full-fledged crisis (remember the fun of 1998?). However, it is safe to say that the focal point of the stock market remains the currencies, economies, and equity markets of places like China…
Will the Worries Stick?
What a difference a day makes! In Friday morning's market missive entitled "Is It Time To Worry?" the argument was made that the chart of the DJIA (NYSE: DIA) was not representative of the state of the overall market. While the vene…
Is It Time To Worry Again?
So, traders and their computers are back to worrying about China's growth rate. And about the state of the U.S. Economy. And whether the taper is a mistake. And about the health of corporate earnings. Or are they?
To be sure, the data out of China overnight got people's attention.…
The Market Math on Investor Sentiment
So far in 2014, the action in the stock market has been fairly sloppy. Despite the traditional strong seasonality (which ends shortly by the way) and the flow of new money that tends to occur at the beginning of a new year, there has been a great deal of intraday selling taking place this…
What's The Message From The Market Math - Part II
In what wound up being a truly meandering missive yesterday morning, we explored one of Wall Street's oldest clichés, "Don't fight the Fed." Today, we'll try to tighten the message up a bit and focus on another famous Wall Street-ism: "Don't fight the tape."
It is unclear w…
What's The Message From the Market Math?
At this time of year, it is natural for investors to want to make adjustments to their portfolios. This is also the time when folks tend to peer into their crystal ball and try to figure out what to expect next from Ms. Market. Everywhere one turns these days there are predictions. Predic…