Daily State of the Markets

Herd Behavior

By: David Moenning

"Herd behavior, or the tendency of individuals in a group to 'follow the trend,' has frequently been observed in equity markets. Herd behavior in investors leads to a convergence of action." [Yan, Zhao, Sun (2012)] "Theoretical models on herd behavior predict that under d…

Where Do Things Stand Now?

By: David Moenning

To be sure, it is rare to see the mood of the market swing from the depths of despair seen on Christmas Eve to the "happy days are here again" feeling of last week in such a short period of time. To review, starting December 3rd, stocks began moving down - in a straight line - wit…

All Clear?

By: David Moenning

The bad news is that after a rather rambunctious rally, the S&P 500 remains -8.9% from its all-time high. The good news is that after the -19.8% shellacking that ended on Christmas Eve, the stock market now starts the week well above its December lows and looking good. To be s…

Is Enough Baked In?

By: David Moenning

After a very scary decline and then an impressive rally, the question most investors are probably asking themselves is, where are we now? In order to get our bearings, let's review where we've been. Recall that as of the market close on Christmas eve, the bears had pummeled the S&…

The Magic Words

By: David Moenning

Well that was fun. Don't look now fans, but after Friday's joyride to the upside, the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% from its Christmas Eve low and is now down only -13.3% from the most recent high water mark. My guess is everybody is feeling a little bit better about the stock market right …

Is It Over? And What To Expect Next

By: David Moenning

I ended last week's pre-holiday missive with the following: "It is easy to say the bulls are due. Really due." And as if right on cue, stocks proceeded to bounce hard the following session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoying its biggest one-day point gain in history: 1,086.25. …

More Than Meets The Eye Happening Here

By: David Moenning

I attended a holiday gathering for one of my advisor clients on Friday evening. While everyone appeared to be in the spirit of the season, when the conversation eventually turned to the market action, the mood quickly changed. In talking with fellow financial professionals through…

Are Investors Now Fighting The Fed And The Tape?

By: David Moenning

I'm not sure whether it was the late Marty Zweig or his buddy Ned Davis who originally coined the phrase, but it appears that after yesterday, anyone long the stock market may now officially be fighting both the Fed and the tape! Investors came into Wednesday in a hopeful mood. An…

Here's Hoping Santa Makes The Trip

By: David Moenning

It was a very busy weekend in St. Louis, visiting our grandson, daughter and son-in-law, so I'm going to keep the subjective side of this report short and let the models and indicators do most of the talking. But first, let me say that watching a two-year old tear into presents is about a…

Window "Undressing" May Be At Work

The headlines blared that stocks soared Wednesday in response to improvements in the trade war. Apparently, China was making noise about a new policy designed to increase access to the country's economy for foreign companies. Diving into the story, it certainly sounded like things were mo…