State of the Markets

Indicator Review: A Crack In The Foundation?

For some time now, I've referred to the current market cycle as a corrective/consolidation phase. My thinking has been that after a 57% move from February 11, 2016 through January 26, 2018 (a move that included what appeared to be a blow-off top in January this year), a period of "digesti…

The Action Is Getting Sloppy, But Indicators Still Say...

By: David Moenning

The market action has definitely turned sloppy over the last two weeks. Small-cap investors may not have noticed thanks to the string of fresh all-time highs. However, those focused on the DJIA are painfully aware of the market's struggles as the venerable index has finished lower in eigh…

Self-Fulfilling Economic Prophecy?

By: David Moenning

In yesterday's morning missive, I painted a picture of a strong U.S. economy. We reviewed six charts from the latest NFIB survey that showed small business owners to be doing w…

Some Charts You Just Can't Ignore

By: David Moenning

Don't look now fans, but the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen for six consecutive sessions. While, the S&P 500 has fared a bit better, and the small-cap indices are actually up during this time frame, many analysts seem to think that an all-out trade war and/or slowin…

Another Brick In The Wall (Of Worry)

By: David Moenning

It is said that the stock market climbs a wall of worry. Put another way, while there is always something for the nattering nabobs of negativity to fret over, the stock market tends to "get over it" and move higher over time. So, just about the time investors may have assumed the market w…

Usually A Rough Week But An Important Model Turns Green

By: David Moenning

Good Monday morning and welcome back. Market historians know that this week - the week following June's quadruple witch options expiration event - tends to be negative. If memory serves, stocks have moved lower this week more than 85% of the time over the last 28 years. So, with China goi…

When Tudor Jones Talks...

By: David Moenning

Although his words did not move the markets the way other billionaire hedge fund managers such as David Tepper have in the past, legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones appeared to have some pretty positive things to say about the stock market on Tuesday. However, I think it is important to rec…

How To Play The Week's Big Events

By: David Moenning

With so many big events on the calendar this week (North Korean Summit, Sprint merger ruling, FOMC meeting, ECB meeting, BOJ meeting, as well as the ongoing trade negotiations and data on retail sales, industrial production, and inflation data) there is little doubt that the algos are pri…

Buckle Up, This Will Be Interesting

By: David Moenning

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. I hope you are buckled in as we've got a big week for the markets coming. So, before we review the state of the market models, let's take a look at what might shape the markets this week. The news flow actually …

A Re-Risking Phase?

By: David Moenning

Don't look now fans, but it appears that the mood of the market has changed. Gone is the fear of the next ultra-violent freak-out over this or that. Gone is the worry that the good economic times won't/can't last. And gone is the expectation that the next move lower will be "the one" that…