State of the Markets
Tit-for-Tat Fear Trumps Fundamental Backdrop
By: David Moenning
Here we go again. The market's biggest fear - a trade war with China (and others) - appears to be taking shape. At least that's what the 550-point dive in U.S. stock futures tell us this morning.
Some might have been encouraged by yesterday's rather surprising rebound of nearly 40…
Let's Keep This In Perspective
By: David Moenning
My how the game has changed. Hand wringing has turned into teeth gnashing. Concern has turned into worry. And confidence has turned to out-and-out fear. All in 44 trading days. Yes fans, in a span of just over two months, the mood of this market has changed - completely.
We've gon…
The Question Of The Day Is...
By: David Moenning
From my seat, the question of the day is whether or not we've seen the lows for the current corrective phase. I can actually argue both sides of this one as the indicator evidence has been and continues to be mixed. For example, the bulls argue that the declines seen since February's emot…
The Indicators Tell Us...
As I opined yesterday morning, I believe stocks are in the midst of what is called a "bad news panic." Typically, such environments take hold when players are focused on a single event (or, in this case, a potential event) that appears to be negative. The bottom line is the situation crea…
Remember, Good News Can Happen Too
The primary purpose of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to identify the primary drivers of the stock market environment. As I've stated a time or three, the idea is that if we can stay in tune with what Ms. Market is doing and why in the short-term, then we have a better…
Good Thing Trade Wars Are "Easy to Win"
It's a good thing trade wars are "easy to win," right? Otherwise, investors couldn't really be blamed for doing some hand-wringing over yet another big, red down day for the stock market. A day where the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped an eye-popping 724 points, or -2.93%. …
What We Learned
By: David Moenning
As usual, there was a fair amount of volatility following the Fed announcement yesterday. As usual, stocks spiked in both directions as the algos plowed through the statement and reacted to everything they found. And as usual, it took a few minutes for the humans to digest what Mr. Powell…
And Now We Wait...
By: David Moenning
And now we wait. For this afternoon's Fed meeting, that is. Make no mistake about it; while there is plenty of other "stuff" for traders to occupy their time with today, what Jay Powell and friends have to say about the economy, inflation, rates, "the runoff," and the now famous "dots" wi…
Here We Go Again
By: David Moenning
Well, here we go again. Just when I had described the recent five-day pullback as "orderly" all heck breaks loose and the stock market makes headlines again for producing big, red numbers.
As long-time readers know, I tend to obsess over the drivers of the stock market action. I f…
Both Teams Appear To Have An Argument
By: David Moenning
What a difference a week makes in this game, right? At this time last week, we were celebrating the "Goldilocks" economic data and the six-day run higher in stocks that pushed the NASDAQ Composite to a fresh all-time high. However, five days and four big, red candlesticks later, the enthu…