State of the Markets
File This Jobs Report in the Goldilocks Category
By: David Moenning
If it's the first Friday of the month, it must be jobs day. The Labor Department reported that the economy added 148,000 jobs in December, which was well below the expectations for 190,000 new jobs. December's total was also below November's torrid pace of 252,000, which was revised up fr…
Could Good News Become Bad Again Soon?
By: David Moenning
To be sure, inflation does not appear to be a major threat to the economy at this point in time. And as a quick aside, when I began in the business in early 1980, the "problem" was too much inflation, not too little. Thus, I've found all the hand wringing about inflation failing to meet c…
Can The Bears Find Their Long-Lost Mojo?
By: David Moenning
The "State of the Markets"
As we embark on a fresh new calendar year (aka the scorecard in our business), the question of the day is – in my mind, in my mind, anyway – will the bears will be able to locate their long-lost mojo anytime soon?
To be sure, it has…
What Could Go Wrong?
Yesterday's missive took a glass-is-half-full stance by exploring the various tailwinds the bulls are counting on to keep stock prices movin' on up. The list included earnings, economic growth, low inflation, ongoing QE, favorable seasonality, the flows into passive funds/ETFs, performanc…
It Can't Continue, Can It?
Yesterday, we talked about the fact that the stock market has now enjoyed the longest stretch ever without experiencing a correction of 3% or more. We noted that the CBOE Volatility Index (aka the VIX) recently hit an all-time low and that volatility in general is the lowest in decades. I…
Fear Has Left The Building
Although the S&P 500 finished the session with the biggest decline in nearly two months, the fact that the venerable index didn't fall 3% yesterday meant a new record for the longest period of time without a 3% correction in the stock market. According to Ryan Detrick, Monday marked t…
An Awful Lot of Green And Upgraded Models
Good morning. We've got a new week on tap so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in an attempt to …
Should You Wait For Valuations To Improve?
One of my favorite Wall Street clichés relating to stock market valuations goes something like this: "Valuations don't matter until they do, and then they matter a lot."
Actually, you can probably replace the word valuations with any issue you'd like and the phrase would st…
All About Fund Flows?
To say that the stock market has become a low-volatility game this year is definitely an understatement. For example, it has now been two months since the last time the S&P 500 dropped by 1% or more and according to Ned Davis Research, this is now the longest stretch without even a 3%…
Good Enough, But...
Good morning. It's a new week so let's get started with a review of my key market models/indicators and see where we stand. To review, the primary goal of this exercise is to try and remove any subjective notions about what "should" be happening in the market in an attempt to stay in line…