Daily State of the Markets
What Does The Market Fear Most?
Good Morning. If ever there was a self-fulfilling bearish prophecy, this was it. Everybody, everywhere has been watching the same lines in the sand, the same data, the same earnings guidance, and the same speeches by Fed officials. Everybody, everywhere knew that internal momentum had bee…
The New Inflation Problem
Good Morning. When I entered the financial services business in 1980, inflation at the consumer level (the Consumer Price Index) was running above 14%. The situation was so bad that then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had declared war on inflation and was raising interest rates every time you …
Tapering Expectations?
Good Morning. While I hate to restate the obvious, stocks have been going sideways for the better part of the past month. And as can be expected, the two combatants in our stock market game have differing opinions on what this means. "Sideways is the new down!" is the battle cry of the gl…
What Do The Market Models Say - Part II
Good Morning. Although the S&P 500 is just a couple points off the all-time high set on August 2, there is an awful lot of chatter about stocks heading lower from here. There really isn't much in the way of new justification for the anticipated dance to the downside as the discussions…
What Do The Market Models Say?
Good Morning. Okay, let's break it down. It's August. It's the height of the vacation season (and mine doesn't start until the 21st). The markets are going sideways. Volume is very light (SPY volume has been below average for 27 straight trading days). Earnings season has just about ended…
While We Wait: Let's Talk Strategy
Good Morning. With the market clearly waiting on the data, the Fed and Friday's jobs report, I've decided to spend my pixels this morning talking something that is dear to my heart - investing strategy. I've spent a fair amount of my 33-year career investigating, testing, and/or developin…
Fun With Numbers: The New GDP Formula
Good Morning. In case the prior ten days didn't give you a clue, Monday's action made it clear (as in A Few Good Men "crystal" clear) that traders are playing a waiting game in front of this week's big, bad events. But to be fair, with the stock market having run up nearly 6 percent in th…
Thank You Mr. Draghi
Good Morning. It was a year ago Friday that ECB President "Super Mario" Draghi stopped the European Debt Crisis dead in its tracks. With one simple sentence, the crisis that had plagued both stock and bond markets around the globe for the past three years ended abruptly. Although the bear…
Conversations From The Halls
Good Morning. While it is probably a safe bet that there aren't more than a handful of readers who noticed that I've been M.I.A. the last few mornings, I feel obliged to explain my absence. In short, I had a surgical procedure at the end of last week to repair a herniated disc in my lower…
The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
Good Morning. After eight consecutive up days and green finishes seen in twelve of the last fourteen sessions, even the most ardent bulls will likely admit that a pause might be in order right about now. So, with Ben Bernanke ready to launch into in his semi-annual chat with Congress toda…