Daily State of the Markets
Is It Time To Worry Again?
So, traders and their computers are back to worrying about China's growth rate. And about the state of the U.S. Economy. And whether the taper is a mistake. And about the health of corporate earnings. Or are they?
To be sure, the data out of China overnight got people's attention.…
The Market Math on Investor Sentiment
So far in 2014, the action in the stock market has been fairly sloppy. Despite the traditional strong seasonality (which ends shortly by the way) and the flow of new money that tends to occur at the beginning of a new year, there has been a great deal of intraday selling taking place this…
What's The Message From The Market Math - Part II
In what wound up being a truly meandering missive yesterday morning, we explored one of Wall Street's oldest clichés, "Don't fight the Fed." Today, we'll try to tighten the message up a bit and focus on another famous Wall Street-ism: "Don't fight the tape."
It is unclear w…
What's The Message From the Market Math?
At this time of year, it is natural for investors to want to make adjustments to their portfolios. This is also the time when folks tend to peer into their crystal ball and try to figure out what to expect next from Ms. Market. Everywhere one turns these days there are predictions. Predic…
What Do The Cycles Say About January 2014?
For anyone still dazed and/or confused as to why the S&P 500 was up nearly 30 percent in 2013, the slogan from Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign sums it up nicely. Although the first iteration of the now familiar phrase appeared to be spoken off the cuff at the time, "It's the…
The 13 Things We Learned 2013 - Part III
While most pundits came into 2014 looking for the year-end ramp to continue, stocks have started off the New Year on the wrong foot so far. And with so much attention paid to the first five days of January ("As the first five days go, so goes January" and "As January goes, so goes the yea…
13 Things We Learned in 2013
The big, bad Fed announcement is out of the way. Lawmakers in D.C. decided not to act like children this Holiday Season. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent clip in the third quarter. Corporate profits are at all-time highs. Inflation is low. Rates are low. The S&P 500 is up +27.5 …
2014 Planning: Buy Signals To Watch For
To be sure, the Fed's decision to begin tapering their QE program remains the topic of conversation around water coolers in Manhattan, Chicago and LA. In short, nobody really expected Ben Bernanke to start cutting back on one of his greatest inventions as he moved toward the door…
Lesson From The Fed: ZIRP Trumps Taper
For weeks, the question of whether or not the Fed would begin tapering their QE program was the focus of the stock market. After each and every economic report, the issue was always the same: Was good news bad for stocks because it meant the Fed would start pulling the punch bowl? Or was …
2014 Planning: Two Sell Signals to Watch For
In looking ahead to the New Year, a great many investors will be trying to avoid the big mistake of 2013: missing out on the gains available in the U.S. stock market. You see, even with the recent "sloppy period," the S&P 500 is up 24.9 percent year-to-date, the Russell 2000 sports a …