Daily State of the Markets
Is It Time To Move Into Crisis Mode?
The title of yesterday's missive was, "Is There Really a Crisis in Emerging Markets? Or..." The primary point made was that although stocks are off their recent highs and things have become much more volatile this year, the charts of the greenback, gold and bonds did not seem to confirm t…
Emerging Markets Mess: Blame It On The Fed?
It is yet unclear as to whether or not the current mess in the emerging markets will morph into a full-fledged crisis (remember the fun of 1998?). However, it is safe to say that the focal point of the stock market remains the currencies, economies, and equity markets of places like China…
Will the Worries Stick?
What a difference a day makes! In Friday morning's market missive entitled "Is It Time To Worry?" the argument was made that the chart of the DJIA (NYSE: DIA) was not representative of the state of the overall market. While the vene…
Is It Time To Worry Again?
So, traders and their computers are back to worrying about China's growth rate. And about the state of the U.S. Economy. And whether the taper is a mistake. And about the health of corporate earnings. Or are they?
To be sure, the data out of China overnight got people's attention.…
The Market Math on Investor Sentiment
So far in 2014, the action in the stock market has been fairly sloppy. Despite the traditional strong seasonality (which ends shortly by the way) and the flow of new money that tends to occur at the beginning of a new year, there has been a great deal of intraday selling taking place this…
What's The Message From The Market Math - Part II
In what wound up being a truly meandering missive yesterday morning, we explored one of Wall Street's oldest clichés, "Don't fight the Fed." Today, we'll try to tighten the message up a bit and focus on another famous Wall Street-ism: "Don't fight the tape."
It is unclear w…
What's The Message From the Market Math?
At this time of year, it is natural for investors to want to make adjustments to their portfolios. This is also the time when folks tend to peer into their crystal ball and try to figure out what to expect next from Ms. Market. Everywhere one turns these days there are predictions. Predic…
What Do The Cycles Say About January 2014?
For anyone still dazed and/or confused as to why the S&P 500 was up nearly 30 percent in 2013, the slogan from Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign sums it up nicely. Although the first iteration of the now familiar phrase appeared to be spoken off the cuff at the time, "It's the…
The 13 Things We Learned 2013 - Part III
While most pundits came into 2014 looking for the year-end ramp to continue, stocks have started off the New Year on the wrong foot so far. And with so much attention paid to the first five days of January ("As the first five days go, so goes January" and "As January goes, so goes the yea…
13 Things We Learned in 2013
The big, bad Fed announcement is out of the way. Lawmakers in D.C. decided not to act like children this Holiday Season. The U.S. economy grew at a 4.1 percent clip in the third quarter. Corporate profits are at all-time highs. Inflation is low. Rates are low. The S&P 500 is up +27.5 …