I try to take some time away from the keyboard at this time of year to spend more time with the family and to recharge the batteries a bit. So, until 2022 gets rolling on Wall Street, here's wishing everyone a Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year!

Now let's review the "state of the market" through the lens of our market models...

The Big-Picture Market Models

We start with six of our favorite long-term market models. These models are designed to help determine the "state" of the overall market.

* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR.

Current Take: Big Picture Models

There is one change to the Primary Cycle Board to report this week as the Leading Indicators Model upticked from negative to neutral. With no red on the board, the message here continues to lean bullish.

The Fundamental Backdrop

Next, we review the market's fundamental factors including interest rates, the economy, earnings, inflation, and valuations.

* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR.

Current Take: Fundamental Models

There are no changes to the Fundamental Board this week. My takeaway is it's a bull market until proven otherwise but there are fundamental risks to be aware of.

The State of the Trend

After reviewing the big-picture models and the fundamental backdrop, I like to look at the state of the current trend. This board of indicators is designed to tell us about the overall technical health of the market's trend.

Current Take: Trend Models

The Trend Board improved nicely last week with the arrival of the Santa Claus rally and continues to lean bullish.

The State of Internal Momentum

Next, we analyze the momentum indicators/models to determine if there is any "oomph" behind the current move.

* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR.

Current Take: Momentum Models

Although there was some improvement last week, we must recognize that the Momentum Board is not as strong as one would expect/hope with the S&P 500 at all-time highs.

Early Warning Indicators

Finally, we look at our early warning indicators to gauge the potential for countertrend moves. This batch of indicators is designed to suggest when the table is set for the trend to "go the other way."

* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR.

Current Take: Early Warning Models

The Early Warning Board remains fairly neutral here with the edge going to the bulls to start the week.

Thought for the Day:

There will be somebody with more than you and somebody with less than you. So you might as well be satisfied. --Melba Roeckeman

Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,

David D. Moenning
Founder, Chief Investment Officer
Heritage Capital Research, a Registered Investment Advisor

Market Models Explained

Disclosures

At the time of publication, Mr. Moenning held long positions in the following securities mentioned: None - Note that positions may change at any time.

NOT INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE. IMPORTANT FURTHER DISCLOSURES