Since Greece has once again become "the word" for this market, we thought it would be a good idea to do a quick roundup of current events. For starters, it will suffice to say that the Greek saga dragged on last week and the headlines were clearly responsible for much of the volatility in U.S. equities. However, from a big picture standpoint, we must also recognize that the extent of the damage has been rather muted. For example, while the headlines out of Greece did seem to drive the action on a daily basis, the S&P 500 finished just 1.07% below the week's high water mark and the venerable index closed Friday a mere 1.39% from the most recent all-time high set on May 21.
As the week progressed, there seemed to be a notable pickup in optimism surrounding the opportunity for a deal to get done - especially after Greek officials had submitted a new round of reforms mid-week. However, the enthusiasm proved fleeting as the country's creditors quickly expressed concern about the details of the proposed changes and pushed back on the idea that a deal was close at hand. At the same time, the Greek government continued to pound the table against any cuts to pensions and reiterated that any deal had to include another reduction in its overall debt. The ongoing rhetoric and the lack of progress late in the week then put the focus on the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Saturday with both sides calling the meeting a make-or-break situation.
But before the big showdown could even take place, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras threw a monkey wrench into the proceedings by calling for a snap referendum on the bailout proposal from European creditors. Tsipras said that while he is opposed to the deal and is urging a "no" vote, he would accept it if supported by Greek voters.
The bottom line is that the surprise vote killed any chance for a last-minute deal on an extension of the current bailout program. And despite the increase in rhetoric late in the week, a majority of analysts still believed that at a last-minute deal would have been reached at Saturday's Eurogroup meeting.
The national vote will take place next Sunday, July 5th and as such, appears to be the final deadline for the current chapter in the ongoing Greek drama. However, creditors have so far refused to provide an extension of the current bailout program, which expires on Tuesday, to accommodate the referendum. Therefore, at least a "technical default" on Greek debt looks to occur on Tuesday.
It also worth noting that the current bailout program for Greece expires on June 30th. And with the latest surprise move by Tsipras, EU leaders have made it clear on Monday that the current program will not be extended.
Here's the Latest...
In response to the referendum news, the ECB decided on Sunday to keep the ceiling on emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for Greek banks unchanged and said that it would be monitoring the situation closely.
This is probably a good idea because, not surprisingly, the recent developments have created a scramble for cash in Greece. ATM lines have become extreme with many banks having already run out of funds. In response, banks and the Athens Stock Exchange will be closed until the vote takes place on Sunday. The Greek government has also put capital controls in place, meaning that the withdrawal limit at Greek bank ATMs is &euor;60 per day.
Don't Forget About China
Oh, and in case anybody is watching anything other than the drama in Greece, we should note that the People's Bank of China cut its benchmark lending rate by 0.25% to a record low on Saturday and the RRR by 0.50%. The move was the fourth such reduction in rates since November. On its website, the bank said the one-year lending rate will be reduced by 25 basis points to 4.85% effective June 28.
It should be noted that the surprise cut in rates comes on the heels of a precipitous dive in stock prices. In fact, the Shanghai index has experienced the biggest two-week plunge since December 1996. The composite index sank 7.4% on Friday alone and has plunged 19% since the June 12 high.
So, while Greece will likely remain the focal point during this holiday-shortened week, traders will likely be keeping an eye on China - as well as the upcoming U.S. Jobs report.
What all of this has meant for the stock market is that the current trading range remains solidly in place. As you can see from the chart below, 2130 is the area that needs to be soundly broken if the bulls expect to get anything going on the upside while the 2070 area is the near-term line in the sand the bears would need to breach in order to swing momentum their way. At this stage, the S&P appears to be stuck in the middle of the range, waiting and watching for the next important input.
S&P 500 Index - Daily
View Larger Image
This Morning's Pre-Game Indicators
Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
Hong Kong: -2.61%
Crude Oil Futures: -$1.15 to $58.48
Gold: +$4.20 at $1177.40
Dollar: higher against the yen, euro and pound
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.364%
Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
S&P 500: -19.94
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -161
NASDAQ Composite: -49.88
Thought For The Day:
"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted, counts." -Albert Einstein
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The State of the Greek Crisis
2. The State of Fed/ECB/PBoC Policy
3. The State of the U.S. Economy
4. The State of Interest Rates
The State of the Trend
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Neutral
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
- Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2070
- Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2135
The State of the Tape
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Neutral
- Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
- Volume Thrust Indicator: Neutral
- Breadth Thrust Indicator: Neutral
- Intermediate-Term Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Moderately Negative
- Technical Health of 100+ Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
The Early Warning Indicators
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
- S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
- Short-Term: Neutral
- Intermediate-Term: Moderately Oversold
- Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Neutral .
The State of the Market Environment
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.
- Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Neutral
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
Heritage Capital Research
Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.
The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.
Mr. Moenning is also the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a state-registered investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM, Heritage, or CONCERT is registered as a broker-dealer.
Employees and affiliates of Heritage and HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or Heritage/HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.
Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.