Some Very Scary Pictures
It is getting to be that time of year when it is oh so tempting to incorporate the season into the titles/themes of stock market commentary. While I usually try to avoid being trite when conjuring up my oftentimes meandering morning market missive, today I can't seem to help myself. So, with my apologies for the obvious play on Halloween, I want to share some downright frightful images this morning.
For starters, let's take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 index. While the lines of sharp rallies aren't usually too terribly scary, more than a few folks I've spoken to lately are shaking in their boots about what may come next in Ms. Market's game.
As the chart below indicates, stocks are clearly overbought at the present time. In English, this means that stocks may have moved too far too fast from a short-term perspective, and as such, could be at risk of a pullback. And while the logical retracement points don't exactly strike fear in the hearts of traders, a break below 2020 might just cause some folks to run screaming into the night.
S&P 500 - Daily
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I've also been told that I should be terrified on several other fronts right now. First and foremost is the fear that the Fed could spook the market by doing (not likely) or saying the wrong thing. Or more appropriately, the algos could run amuck in response to what some Fed official says and scare the bajeebers out of everyone again.
To be sure, Janet Yellen isn't known for evil doings or presiding over a caldron. However, there are those that suggest that the Fed Chair could easily get into the Halloween spirit and sport a witches costume when the Fed convenes this week. It could happen, right?
Then there is the data. Not only will we get a read on what is expected to be a pretty spooky number on the current economic growth rate here in the U.S. (analysts may be afraid to look at the corporate profits component, btw), but we also get the latest update to important stuff like PMI readings, and then of course, the Big Kahuna (aka the Jobs Report) is due out next week.
Another Eerie Sight
Then there is oil. As you may recall, before the mood on Wall Street swung back toward optimism, the price of oil had become a poor man's proxy for the state of global growth. The bottom line here is that if oil is moving down, then the outlook for growth in places like China might be growing dark.
U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) - Daily
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Don't look now fans, but the price of oil is trying to break down again on the daily chart (above). And this situation could indeed become chilling if the weekly chart follows suit.
U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) - Weekly
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The good news is that if oil can avoid going down, stocks can go higher. But, if oil manages to turn tail and run lower, then, well... you may begin to hear bloodcurdling screams emanating from the trading pits.
Speaking of Very Scary Pictures
As I've pointed out a time or two lately, the recent hair-raising decline in the stock market followed the "crash playbook" almost to a "T." We've also noted that the current corrective phase continues to look a lot like the nightmare that was the fall of 2011.
So, if you are really looking to scare yourself, take a look at the chart below. This fine piece of work was done by the folks at Ned Davis Research. The black line is the closing line of the S&P during the horror show of 2011 as well as the ensuing rebound. The blue line is the S&P from November 2014 forward.
The word you are likely looking for is eerie, or creepy. Or if one looks at chart for what could possibly come next, it's just plain scary.
You see, after a furious rebound in 2011, the market then proceeded to go on a wicked decline in response to the downgrade of U.S. debt. And given that the dance to the downside amounted to something on the order of 9%, investors can't be blamed for getting goose bumps when viewing this chart.
The good news is that there doesn't appear to be a government shutdown looming. Heck the boys and girls in D.C. are actually playing nice at the moment. And given that both Super Mario and the Chinese have been passing out candy to the markets lately, this market doesn't feel like a scary place at the present time.
But then again, you never know what goblins may spring up and scare traders half to death in the coming days!
The Pre-Game Indicators
Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
Hong Kong: +0.12%
Crude Oil Futures: -$0.62 to $43.36
Gold: -$1.80 at $1164.40
Dollar: higher against the yen and pound, lower vs. euro
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.042%
Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
S&P 500: -6.40
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -40
NASDAQ Composite: -6.05
Thought For The Day:
"A lifetime of investment research has taught me to become more and more humble about making predictions" --Sir John Templeton
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The State of Global Central Bank Policy
2. The State of China/Global Growth
3. The State of the U.S. Economy
The State of the Trend
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 6 months, and long-term as 6 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Moderately Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
- Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2020
- Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2135
The State of the Tape
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
- Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
- Volume Thrust Indicator(NASDAQ): Neutral
- Breadth Thrust Indicator (NASDAQ): Positive
- Intermediate-Term Volume Relationship: Negative
- Technical Health of 100+ Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
The Early Warning Indicators
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
- S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
- Short-Term: Overbought
- Intermediate-Term: Neutral
- Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Moderately Negative .
The State of the Market Environment
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.
- Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Moderately Positive
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
Heritage Capital Research
Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning's opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.
The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
David D. Moenning is the owner of Heritage Capital Management (HCM) a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are offered through Heritage Capital Management, Inc. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the HCM firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting HeritageHCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Neither HCM or Heritage is registered as a broker-dealer.
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