The Drama Continues But The Real Question Is...
Today's market action continues to be all about Greece. As is typically the case on a Friday, there has been a flurry of headlines from both sides of the debate today. For example, it is being reported that the ECB is preparing for a Greek exit from the Eurozone and that the central bank's staff is developing contingency plans regarding how the rest of the currency bloc could be kept together. And of course, the ECB has declined to comment on the report. On the other side of the aisle, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said in a statement to Reuters that he is certain that a request for a six-month loan agreement extension with conditions will be accepted. And then European Commission spokeswoman Margaritis Schinas said at a daily news briefing that Greece and Europe could reach a deal if all parties are reasonable on their demands (feel free to insert eye roll here). And so it goes.
The key issue remains whether or not Greece will be required to continue with the current bailout program. Recall that the Greeks argue the old bailout plan has been cancelled while the Germans insist that a deal is a deal. And while this appears to be largely an issue of semantics and exact verbiage, it is still the crux of of the situation.
In other news, the flash reading of the Euro area composite PMI rose to 53.5 in February from 52.6 in January, which was ahead of consensus for a reading of 53.0. The services component was apparently the key to the improvement as the index increased to 53.9 from 52.7.
Here at home, there is still no settlement in the West Coast ports dispute, despite pressure from US Labor Secretary Tom Perez. More discussions are planned for today and Perez has reportedly told both sides that talks will be forced to move to Washington if no deal can be reached today. With this situation now dragging on, there are concerns about the potential impact to the nation's GDP.
Looking ahead to today's trade, U.S. stock futures are quiet in the early going, suggesting that investors may continue to be at the mercy of the headlines out of Europe today.
Current Market Environment
From a short-term perspective, it appears that there is a bit of a "discussion" going on in the stock market. On one hand you have the argument that traders are waiting on the outcome of the latest Greek drama before committing additional funds. Exhibit A here would be the action of the S&P 500 and DJIA over the last few days, which suggests that the most recent rally has stalled out. Yet on the other hand, you have the action of the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Midcap indices, which lean bullish and suggest that the only thing to fear at the present time is fear itself. As a tie breaker, we turn to the readings of our major market models, which tell us to side with the bulls but to play the game with a bit more caution than normal here.
Thursday's lackluster trade once again did nothing to resolve the question of the day in the stock market. At issue, of course, is whether or not the market has broken free of the sideways trading range that has been in place for the better part of the last three months. The good news is that the NASDAQ and Midcap indices suggest that the range has indeed been resolved to the upside and it is only a matter of time before the Dow and S&P join the breakout party. However, with the drama in Europe continuing to dominate the headlines, it may be a while before this situation is put to bed. For now, we will continue to watch the key lines in the sand on the charts of the blue chip indices.
S&P 500 - Daily
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Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
Hong Kong: closed
Crude Oil Futures: +$0.23 to $51.39
Gold: +$2.50 at $1210.10
Dollar: higher against the yen, euro and pound
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 2.090%
Stock Indices in U.S. (relative to fair value):
S&P 500: -1
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3
NASDAQ Composite: +1.25
Thought For The Day:
Remember happiness doesn't depend upon who you are or what you have; it depends solely on what you think. -Dale Carnegie
Current Market Drivers
We strive to identify the driving forces behind the market action on a daily basis. The thinking is that if we can both identify and understand why stocks are doing what they are doing on a short-term basis; we are not likely to be surprised/blind-sided by a big move. Listed below are what we believe to be the driving forces of the current market (Listed in order of importance).
1. The State of the Greece Situation
2. The State of Fed/ECB Policy
3. The State of the U.S. Economy
4. The State of the Oil Crash
The State of the Trend
We believe it is important to analyze the market using multiple time-frames. We define short-term as 3 days to 3 weeks, intermediate-term as 3 weeks to 3 months, and long-term as 3 months or more. Below are our current ratings of the three primary trends:
Short-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 1 month)
Intermediate-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 6 months)
Long-Term Trend: Positive
(Chart below is S&P 500 daily over past 2 years)
Key Technical Areas:
Traders as well as computerized algorithms are generally keenly aware of the important technical levels on the charts from a short-term basis. Below are the levels we deem important to watch today:
- Key Near-Term Support Zone(s) for S&P 500: 2060
- Key Near-Term Resistance Zone(s): 2100
The State of the Tape
Momentum indicators are designed to tell us about the technical health of a trend - I.E. if there is any "oomph" behind the move. Below are a handful of our favorite indicators relating to the market's "mo"...
- Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term): Positive
- Price Thrust Indicator: Positive
- Volume Thrust Indicator: Positive
- Breadth Thrust Indicator: Positive
- Bull/Bear Volume Relationship: Positive
- Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups: Moderately Positive
The Early Warning Indicators
Markets travel in cycles. Thus we must constantly be on the lookout for changes in the direction of the trend. Looking at market sentiment and the overbought/sold conditions can provide "early warning signs" that a trend change may be near.
- S&P 500 Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
- Short-Term: Overbought
- Intermediate-Term: Overbought
- Market Sentiment: Our primary sentiment model is Neutral .
The State of the Market Environment
One of the keys to long-term success in the stock market is stay in tune with the market's "big picture" environment in terms of risk versus reward.
- Weekly Market Environment Model Reading: Positive
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
Heritage Capital Research
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Trend and Breadth Confirmation Indicator (Short-Term) Explained: History shows the most reliable market moves tend to occur when the breadth indices are in gear with the major market averages. When the breadth measures diverge, investors should take note that a trend reversal may be at hand. This indicator incorporates an All-Cap Dollar Weighted Equity Series and A/D Line. From 1998, when the A/D line is above its 5-day smoothing and the All-Cap Equal Weighted Equity Series is above its 25-day smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +32.5% per year. When one of the indicators is above its smoothing, the equity index has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when both are below, the equity index has lost +23.6% per year.
Price Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator measures the 3-day rate of change of the Value Line Composite relative to the standard deviation of the 30-day average. When the Value Line's 3-day rate of change have moved above 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day average ROC, a "thrust" occurs and since 2000, the Value Line Composite has gained ground at a rate of +20.6% per year. When the indicator is below 0.5 standard deviation of the 30-day, the Value Line has lost ground at a rate of -10.0% per year. And when neutral, the Value Line has gained at a rate of +5.9% per year.
Volume Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses NASDAQ volume data to indicate bullish and bearish conditions for the NASDAQ Composite Index. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of NASDAQ daily advancing volume (i.e., the total volume traded in stocks which rose in price each day) to the 10-day total of daily declining volume (volume traded in stocks which fell each day). This ratio indicates when advancing stocks are attracting the majority of the volume (readings above 1.0) and when declining stocks are seeing the heaviest trading (readings below 1.0). This indicator thus supports the case that a rising market supported by heavier volume in the advancing issues tends to be the most bullish condition, while a declining market with downside volume dominating confirms bearish conditions. When in a positive mode, the NASDAQ Composite has gained at a rate of +38.3% per year, When neutral, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +13.3% per year. And when negative, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -8.5% per year.
Breadth Thrust Indicator Explained: This indicator uses the number of NASDAQ-listed stocks advancing and declining to indicate bullish or bearish breadth conditions for the NASDAQ Composite. The indicator plots the ratio of the 10-day total of the number of stocks rising on the NASDAQ each day to the 10-day total of the number of stocks declining each day. Using 10-day totals smooths the random daily fluctuations and gives indications on an intermediate-term basis. As expected, the NASDAQ Composite performs much better when the 10-day A/D ratio is high (strong breadth) and worse when the indicator is in its lower mode (weak breadth). The most bullish conditions for the NASDAQ when the 10-day A/D indicator is not only high, but has recently posted an extreme high reading and thus indicated a thrust of upside momentum. Bearish conditions are confirmed when the indicator is low and has recently signaled a downside breadth thrust. In positive mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +22.1% per year since 1981. In a neutral mode, the NASDAQ has gained at a rate of +14.5% per year. And when in a negative mode, the NASDAQ has lost at a rate of -6.4% per year.
Bull/Bear Volume Relationship Explained: This indicator plots both "supply" and "demand" volume lines. When the Demand Volume line is above the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bullish. From 1981, the stock market has gained at an average annual rate of +11.7% per year when in a bullish mode. When the Demand Volume line is below the Supply Volume line, the indicator is bearish. When the indicator has been bearish, the market has lost ground at a rate of -6.1% per year.
Technical Health of 100 Industry Groups Explained: Designed to provide a reading on the technical health of the overall market, this indicator takes the technical temperature of more than 100 industry sectors each week. Looking back to early 1980, when the model is rated as "positive," the S&P has averaged returns in excess of 23% per year. When the model carries a "neutral" reading, the S&P has returned over 11% per year. But when the model is rated "negative," stocks fall by more than -13% a year on average.
Weekly State of the Market Model Reading Explained:Different market environments require different investing strategies. To help us identify the current environment, we look to our longer-term State of the Market Model. This model is designed to tell us when risk factors are high, low, or uncertain. In short, this longer-term oriented, weekly model tells us whether the odds favor the bulls, bears, or neither team.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
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The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
David D. Moenning, an advisor representative of CONCERT Wealth Management Inc. (CONCERT), is founder of Heritage Capital Advisors LLC, a legal business entity doing business as Heritage Capital Research (Heritage). Advisory services are offered through CONCERT Wealth Management, Inc., a registered investment advisor. For a complete description of investment risks, fees and services review the CONCERT firm brochure (ADV Part 2) which is available from your Investment Representative or by contacting Heritage or CONCERT.
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