Both the Early Warning board and my favorite stochastic indicators suggest that stocks are overbought. As such, one can argue that "the table is set" for some downside action. However, I will opine that we've got a "good overbought" condition on our hands. And given that the news on the virus, earnings, and economic fronts have been largely BTE (better than expected), investors continue to put money to work into any pullbacks. As such, a "buy the dip" strategy would appear to remain appropriate in the current environment.
The State of the "Early Warning" Indicators
To review, I believe one of the keys to longevity in the investing business is having a repeatable process. Thus, I start each week with a review of the state of the big-picture environment. I then look at the current trend and the degree of momentum behind the move. Next, I explore the potential for a countertrend move to develop via our Early Warning Indicator Board, which is designed to indicate when "the table might be set" for the trend to "go the other way" for a while.
In reviewing the Early Warning board, my current view is the odds for some downside exploration (aka a countertrend move) continue to favor the bears. However, the table has been set for our furry friends many times during the current bull run and save an ugly day here and there, the bears have unable to do much with their opportunities. So, while stocks remain overbought, the onus looks to be on the bears to produce a scary down day or two.
* Source: Ned Davis Research (NDR) as of the date of publication. Historical returns are hypothetical average annual performances calculated by NDR. Past performances do not guarantee future results or profitability - NOT INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE.
View Early Warning Indicator Board Online
As I mentioned last week, I think we probably need to take the current sentiment readings with a grain of salt. The bottom line is the state of the virus and the economic data appear to be driving traders' views. And with so much uncertainty remaining in these areas, the readings could easily fluctuate quickly.
Over the years, I have found that reviewing the basic stochastics is a solid way to determine when an index or security may be ripe to "go the other way" for a while. I like to keep it simple here by using a 14 day %K (with 1-day smoothing) and a 3 day %D. It's not fancy, but it tends to be an effective tool for an oftentimes complex subject.
S&P 500 - Daily
View Larger Chart
My key takeaway from the "state of the stochastics" is that we've got a "good overbought" condition on our hands. As the chart shows, the S&P has been unable to create any sort of oversold condition since early July. This tells me that buyers remain active and all the dips - even the intraday moves - are being bought.
How long this condition will last is anybody's guess. And yes, this will end at some point. My thinking is that it will take a change in the news in order for the bears to get something going to the downside.
Publishing Note: I have an early commitment tomorrow morning and will not publish a report.
Thought For The Day:
Investing is simple, but not easy - Warren Buffett
Wishing you green screens and all the best for a great day,
David D. Moenning
Founder, Chief Investment Officer
Heritage Capital Research
At the time of publication, Mr. Moenning held long positions in the following securities mentioned: None - Note that positions may change at any time.
Early Warning Models Explained
Short-Term Overbought/sold Indicator: This indicator is the current reading of the 14,1,3 stochastic oscillator. When the oscillator is above 80 and the %K is above the %D, the indicator gives an overbought reading. Conversely, when the oscillator is below 20 and %K is below its %D, the indicator is oversold.
Intermediate-Term Overbought/sold Indicator: This indicator is a 40-day RSI reading. When above 57.5, the indicator is considered overbought and wnen below 45 it is oversold.
Mean Reversion Model: This is a diffusion model consisting of five indicators that can produce buy and sell signals based on overbought/sold conditions.
VIX Indicator: This indicators looks at the current reading of the VIX relative to a series of Donchian Channel bands. When the indicator reaches an extreme reading in either direction, it is an indication that a market trend could reverse in the near-term.
Short-Term Sentiment Indicator: This is a model-of-models composed of 18 independent sentiment indicators designed to indicate when market sentiment has reached an extreme from a short-term perspective. Historical analysis indicates that the stock market's best gains come after an environment has become extremely negative from a sentiment standpoint. Conversely, when sentiment becomes extremely positive, market returns have been subpar.
Intermediate-Term Sentiment Indicator: This is a model-of-models composed of 7 independent sentiment indicators designed to indicate when market sentiment has reached an extreme from a intermediate-term perspective. Historical analysis indicates that the stock market's best gains come after an environment has become extremely negative from a sentiment standpoint. Conversely, when sentiment becomes extremely positive, market returns have been subpar.
Long-Term Sentiment Indicator: This is a model-of-models composed of 6 independent sentiment indicators designed to indicate when market sentiment has reached an extreme from a long-term perspective. Historical analysis indicates that the stock market's best gains come after an environment has become extremely negative from a sentiment standpoint. Conversely, when sentiment becomes extremely positive, market returns have been subpar.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and Heritage Capital Research and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
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