State of the Markets
What Do The Market Models Say?
Good Morning. Okay, let's break it down. It's August. It's the height of the vacation season (and mine doesn't start until the 21st). The markets are going sideways. Volume is very light (SPY volume has been below average for 27 straight trading days). Earnings season has just about ended…
Is Sentiment Becoming A Problem?
Good Morning. After the issue of stock market valuations, investor sentiment may be one of the most misunderstood and misused indicators available today. The issue is simple. Nobody thinks they are part of the herd. No one wants to be the "greater fool." Everyone knows that bubbles don't …
Everybody's Talking About A Pause
Good Morning. Here we go again. After three consecutive red closes, the masses are now absolutely, positively sure of what is going to happen next. If I heard it once yesterday, I heard it ten times: it is time for the market to pause.
Never mind the fact that the now deafening ch…
Do The Bears Have a Point (or Three)?
Good Morning. To be sure, those seeing the glass as at least half empty have had a rough go of it this year. And truth be told, it has been about eight months since the bears have been able to put any real fear on the table. In short, the S&P 500 is a little less than one percent away…
What Do The Cycles Say About August?
Good Morning. Although stocks are clearly in an uptrend at the present time, one could not be blamed for feeling like the dog-days of summer are upon us. With the exception of just a couple solid up days, the stock market has spent the vast majority of the last three weeks going sideways.…
History Shows Bears May Continue To Be Frustrated
Good Morning. With the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, continuing to confound the bears and finishing Friday at fresh all-time highs, there is little doubt that the bulls remain in charge of the game at the present time. And for anyone wishing to argue with me on this point,…
Using The Wrong Word Again
Good Morning. I did something really dumb yesterday. I poked a bear. In all honesty, I didn't intend to. My goal with yesterday morning's meandering market missive wasn't to thumb my nose and/or pound my chest about being "right" (I DO know better than that!). I wasn't trying to tell my f…
A Really, Really Bad Idea
Good Morning. Each of the past three days, I've stumbled into my office at around 5:00 am anxious to see if the futures had succumbed to some big, bad event overnight. Stocks have enjoyed a nice run of late and as such, have become overbought. Thus, the bear argument that the indices are …
While We Wait: Let's Talk Strategy
Good Morning. With the market clearly waiting on the data, the Fed and Friday's jobs report, I've decided to spend my pixels this morning talking something that is dear to my heart - investing strategy. I've spent a fair amount of my 33-year career investigating, testing, and/or developin…
Fun With Numbers: The New GDP Formula
Good Morning. In case the prior ten days didn't give you a clue, Monday's action made it clear (as in A Few Good Men "crystal" clear) that traders are playing a waiting game in front of this week's big, bad events. But to be fair, with the stock market having run up nearly 6 percent in th…