State of the Markets
Thank You Mr. Draghi
Good Morning. It was a year ago Friday that ECB President "Super Mario" Draghi stopped the European Debt Crisis dead in its tracks. With one simple sentence, the crisis that had plagued both stock and bond markets around the globe for the past three years ended abruptly. Although the bear…
Conversations From The Halls
Good Morning. While it is probably a safe bet that there aren't more than a handful of readers who noticed that I've been M.I.A. the last few mornings, I feel obliged to explain my absence. In short, I had a surgical procedure at the end of last week to repair a herniated disc in my lower…
The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part III
Good Morning. After eight consecutive up days and green finishes seen in twelve of the last fourteen sessions, even the most ardent bulls will likely admit that a pause might be in order right about now. So, with Ben Bernanke ready to launch into in his semi-annual chat with Congress toda…
The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part II
Good Morning. With the stock market indices clearly in an uptrend at the present time (although a pullback in the near-term would surprise no one), this appears to be a good time to continue our look at the various valuation metrics. This morning, we will take a look at the Price-to-Divid…
The Great (Valuation) Debate - Part I
Good Morning. You may have noticed that in our global macro series, I did not spend much time on the issue of valuation for the U.S. stock market. This is due to the fact that valuation, like beauty, lies in the eyes of the beholder. You see, if you want to start an argument in a room ful…
Lesson Learned: Price Cannot Deviate From Itself
Good Morning. Let's be honest; there are times when figuring out Ms. Market's game can be more than a little challenging. And in my humble opinion, this is one of those times. One minute tapering is a huge problem and interest rates are spiking. However, twelve days and 800 Dow points lat…
Learning to Say, "It's Not What I Do"
Good Morning. First off, I'd like to thank all of you that took the time to communicate your thoughts on our Global Macro series. Your kind words were sincerely appreciated. And since the responses were unanimously positive, we will make a habit of checking in on the macro themes on a mon…
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part III
Good Morning. With stocks in an uptrend at the present time and nothing much new to report, we're going to finish up what will now become at the very least a bimonthly review of the global macro picture. This morning we will take an executive summary look at Japan, Commodities, and Curren…
The Macro View From 30,000 Feet - Part II
Good Morning. Our best guess is that the U.S. stock market is continuing to recover from the "tapering = tightening" freak-out that occurred from 6/19 through 6/24. Some will argue that stocks cannot survive rising rates for long while others (more specifically, those dressed in their hor…
Action Speaks Louder Than Words
Good Morning. Are we having fun yet? For a seventh consecutive day, stocks were whipped around in a violent fashion by the big boys and their computer toys yesterday. The Dow once again put up a triple-digit move, this time a dive of 206 points. The problem is that each move tends to reve…