State of the Markets

Assuming Away The Can And...

By: David Moenning

There is an old joke which pokes fun at economists that I think applies to the current state of the stock market. It goes something like this... An economist, a chemist, and a physicist are stranded on an island with nothing to eat but a can of beans. The chemist s…

The Battle Is On

By: David Moenning

Stocks technically finished lower last week (the S&P 500 fell -1.3%), but in reality, the market has been moving sideways for the past couple weeks or so. Some will call it a consolidation of the big bounce off the bottom. Others say the market is in search of an equilibrium point. An…
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Market Logic Can Be Confusing

By: David Moenning

Investors received a steady flow of really rotten news on many fronts last week. China's economy shrank by -6.8%. JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said we need to expect a "severe recession" as well as "meaningfully bad" credit card defaults. The IMF changed its 2020 global growth forecast …

What Are We Lookin' At?

By: David Moenning

The S&P 500 enjoyed its biggest bounce in 46 years last week. Which followed the biggest/fastest drop from an all-time high since, well, ever. So, naturally, the question now becomes, where do we go from here? Markets cheered the Fed's sledgehammer response this past week. To …
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There Is Good News If You Look Hard Enough

By: David Moenning

The headlines have been awful. The human toll from the virus continues to mount. The economic impact is jaw dropping. And we're told things are going to get worse this week. Although stocks are bouncing in the early going Monday on the hope that the worst will soon be behind us, i…

And We're Back...

By: David Moenning

I received a text last night asking a pretty good question; one that I thought others might be wondering about as well. The text read, "Dave, we knew the news was going to be bad, why does the market suddenly care?" From my perch, the answer is based on the concept of "expectation…

Putting The Rally In Perspective

By: David Moenning

From my seat, it appears that stocks are experiencing a "sigh of relief" rally (aka a dead cat bounce) here. As we've discussed, these rallies tend to be impressive (hence the headlines for last week's big gains) and make everybody "feel better" about the crisis at hand. The bottom line i…

More Questions Than Answers

By: David Moenning

We've talked a lot lately about what I call "The Crash Playbook." In short, this is a guide developed since the mid-1980's on how market crashes/crises tend to play out. The premise for the playbook is, as the saying goes, "history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." The …

The Message From The Market Action

By: David Moenning

Market analysts love to talk about "the action" that occurs in the markets. Many, including yours truly, believe that the manner in which the market moves - especially after important news - can provide a "message" about the current environment. To be clear, the action definitely does NOT…

My $0.02 On The Bounce

By: David Moenning

Stocks are bouncing higher this morning, so I thought I'd provide a quick, "my $0.02 take" on the action so far. From my seat, stocks appear to be rebounding based on the following... Word that China is going to lift the lock-down in Wuhan for healthy citizens on 4/…