State of the Markets

We Don't Need A Deal, But...

Greetings from York, England. We've just completed our driving tour of Scotland where I learned that a "dual carriageway" sign is a rare and welcome sight from the driver's seat and that most of the "roads" in the Highlands (and rural England) are merely golf cart paths that aren't really…

Has Anything Really Changed?

By: David Moenning

Greetings from London. My wife and I are spending a couple weeks exploring England and Scotland, which so far has been, as the Brits like to say, "quite lovely." Our visits to Westminster, Big Ben, Parliament, Buckingham, Kensington, Leeds Castle, Canterbury, Dover Castle and the local pu…

About That 'Message' From The Bond Market

By: David Moenning

After five days of wild, news-driven swings in the stock market, where the action was dominated by escalating trade tensions, the threat of a currency war, and the possibility that the next U.S.-China meeting scheduled for September may not happen, investors can't be blamed for starting t…

Indicators Suggest Weakness Should Be Bought

By: David Moenning

It's been a hectic travel weekend and I'm still on the road. And with all the news flying around at the moment, I feel it is important to spend the appropriate amount of time analyzing the situation and the market action. As such, I'm going to let the indicators do the talking this mornin…

How Do We Model For This?

By: David Moenning

As a risk manager, I try to find and/or create models for as many different market inputs as possible. For example, we have models for corporate earnings, monetary conditions, interest rates, valuations, the U.S. economy, commodities, the global economy, inflation, volatility, overbought/…

Is There Any Upside From Here?

By: David Moenning

Let's review. The S&P 500 is just 5 days removed from its most recent all-time high. Central bankers around the globe are either cutting rates or getting ready to cut rates. Economic growth is slowing. Earnings in the U.S. continue to beat estimates (although the bar for the current s…

A Singular Mission

By: David Moenning

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. While there are many topics to discuss on this fine summer day (earnings, inflation, trade, economic data, etc.) I think we need to recognize that the most important topic and the topic that is driving the action in bot…

What Should We Expect in the 2nd Half of 2019?

By: David Moenning

To be sure, Friday's jobs report created some uncertainty in terms of traders' Fed-expectations. While I can argue that the expectations regarding the degree and speed of anticipated rate cuts had gotten a little out of hand, the question of the day now becomes, what should we expect? As …

Looking For A Way To Identify The Next Big Bear?

By: David Moenning

Let's review. The Fed is no longer the enemy. There is, at the very least, a cease-fire in the trade war between China and the good 'ol USofA. Rates are low. Inflation is nowhere to be found. Earnings will likely set a record this year. The U.S. economy continues to chug along. And if one…

Lots of Inputs But Only One Real Focal Point

By: David Moenning

So many inputs, so little time for a Monday morning market missive. For example, there is a new record for the S&P 500. A new record for the amount of global debt sporting negative yields (now $13 trillion according to Barron's). A new approach for many of the world's central bankers.…