State of the Markets

A Singular Mission

By: David Moenning

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the land of blinking screens. While there are many topics to discuss on this fine summer day (earnings, inflation, trade, economic data, etc.) I think we need to recognize that the most important topic and the topic that is driving the action in bot…

What Should We Expect in the 2nd Half of 2019?

By: David Moenning

To be sure, Friday's jobs report created some uncertainty in terms of traders' Fed-expectations. While I can argue that the expectations regarding the degree and speed of anticipated rate cuts had gotten a little out of hand, the question of the day now becomes, what should we expect? As …

Looking For A Way To Identify The Next Big Bear?

By: David Moenning

Let's review. The Fed is no longer the enemy. There is, at the very least, a cease-fire in the trade war between China and the good 'ol USofA. Rates are low. Inflation is nowhere to be found. Earnings will likely set a record this year. The U.S. economy continues to chug along. And if one…

Lots of Inputs But Only One Real Focal Point

By: David Moenning

So many inputs, so little time for a Monday morning market missive. For example, there is a new record for the S&P 500. A new record for the amount of global debt sporting negative yields (now $13 trillion according to Barron's). A new approach for many of the world's central bankers.…

Markets Never Sleep But Models Still Favor The Bulls

By: David Moenning

It was a busy weekend, to say the least. Two birthday parties. Our youngest daughter's master's graduation at DU. The ensuing after-party until all hours. A celebration for our eldest daughter's PhD. Some precious babysitting time with our grandson. Four trips to the airport. And of cours…

Things Can Change Quickly These Days

By: David Moenning

What a difference a week can make in this game, right? Last week at this time, the market was reacting in a rather hysterical fashion, of course, to news that the President was planning to use punitive tariffs in his quest to strike a deal on immigration with Mexico. At the beginn…

Which Message Is The Right Message?

By: David Moenning

There can be little argument that the stock market is a slave to the news at the present time. Friday's surprise pronouncement that the President plans to use tariffs in a new way is exhibit A in this argument. Tweets go out. Threats are made. Uncertainty increases. Stocks are sold. Bonds…

The Path Of Least Resistance Looks To Be...

By: David Moenning

It's our last day of exploring the Greek Isles, so I'll once again keep this brief. If you haven't visited, I highly recommend a trip to Crete, a simply magnificent island with friendly people, gorgeous land/seascapes and lots to do and see. Oh and the seafood isn't too shabby either!…

The Nuclear Option?

By: David Moenning

Greetings from Mykonos, Greece. Since I am traveling with my wife and exploring the Greek Isles, I'm going to keep my commentary brief for the next couple weeks. One of the benefits of traveling abroad is you are removed from the daily machinations of the markets, which sometimes …

Here We Go Again?

By: David Moenning

For those of you keeping score at home, the S&P 500 is in the midst of the second longest stretch without a 3% correction in the last 10 years (source: Ned Davis Research Group). Although the action was certainly exciting at times last week, that streak remains intact as the S&P c…