State of the Markets

Ignore The Headline And Focus On Yields

By: David Moenning

It's the first Friday of the month, which means it is time for the Big Kahuna of economic data - the jobs report. So, without further ado, let's get to the report and review the bevy of numbers. Point number one: Ignore this month's headline. You see, Hurricane Florence played a r…

Bulls Remain In Charge, But Divergences and Caution Signs Exist

By: David Moenning

It was a busy weekend filled with family, travel, and the passing of a pet, so I'm going to skip the subjective analysis of the stock market and let the indicators do most of the talking on this fine Monday morning. Briefly, the bottom line is the indicator boards continue to sugg…

Will Valuations Spoil The Bull's Party?

By: David Moenning

In spite of the escalating trade "skirmish" and a long list of purported negatives, stocks continued to trudge higher last week with the DJIA finishing at a new all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 wasn't far off the pace, closing just 0.04% off Thursday's record high. However, for th…

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

By: David Moenning

My quote system confirms that stocks finished higher on the week and that the S&P 500 gained ground all five days last week. And with the venerable index closing Friday at the second highest level ever on a daily basis (and the highest ever on a weekly basis), one can't be blamed for …

What If Something Bad Actually Happens?

By: David Moenning

In case you have somehow missed it, the ten-year anniversary of Lehman's collapse is upon us. The fall of Lehman Brothers, and perhaps more importantly, the fact that Wall Street didn't bail out the firm, is widely viewed as the trigger for the ensuing credit crisis and the "Great Recessi…

The Pause That Refreshes?

By: David Moenning

Now that the S&P 500 has managed to move to new all-time highs, the obvious question becomes, where do we go from here? Our furry friends in the bear camp contend that the prolonged period of consolidation that occurred between January 26 and August 24 means the current run fo…

A Step In The Right Direction

By: David Moenning

It always seems to happen this way. Last week the title of my weekly missive was, "All is not right with the world." The key point I wanted to make was that while the U.S. stock market looked to be in pretty good shape, the world markets were not. And since the best bull market runs tend …

All Is Not Right With The World

By: David Moenning

As you are likely aware, I have been suggesting that "some" caution has been warranted in the stock market for a while now. I have pointed to the "state" of both my Primary Cycle models (my favorite longer-term, big-picture market models - shown in the first indicator box below) and the E…

Fresh Worries, But No Crisis

By: David Moenning

A new worry about contagion, rising inflation, political risks, geopolitical issues, concerns about peak growth (especially in semiconductor-land) and, of course, the trade war all combined to create a weak ending to what had been, up to that point, a pretty good week. But given the overb…

Is Caution Still Warranted Here?

By: David Moenning

For a couple months now, I've been opining that this is not the time to have one's foot to the floor in their portfolio. I've even gone so far as to say that some caution is warranted. And what has Ms. Market done in response? Push toward all-time highs, of course! Don't look now …