State of the Markets
Bostic Boost
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Until Thursday afternoon, the path of least resistance for both stock and bond prices appeared to be down. Given the macro narrative, this actually made some sense. After all, with February's inflation and economic data coming in hotter/better than expected and the Fed pledging to remain …
Cautiously Optimistic For Now
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Here we go again. Just when you thought positive economic news was a good thing - because strong data support the soft landing (or better) narrative - traders turned the game on its head. Again.
Stocks experienced their worst day of the year yesterday on the back of news that S&am…
Lines In The Sand
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Good morning and Happy Monday. It is safe to say that most investors are anxiously awaiting the arrival of the monthly update to the Consumer Price Index. Scheduled to be released tomorrow morning, the CPI will provide members of both teams a glimpse into the state of inflation.
A…
As January Goes...
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It is said that those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it. As such, analysts on Wall Street spend an inordinate amount of time on what are called historical analogs and seasonal patterns in the market. The idea to look back at the past and look for historical tendencies.
Are The Bulls Back?
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In last week's meandering market missive, I opined that, "the next major trend - in either direction - is likely to be driven by the outlook/expectation for the state of the economy". While I will admit that this isn't exactly groundbreaking analysis, I continue to believe this i…
A Matter of Timing
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With the exceptions of an ugly day/afternoon here and there, the tenor of the market appears to have improved so far in calendar year 2023. And with both the "Santa Claus/Year-End" and the "First Five Days" indicators positive, investors can't be blamed for looking on the bright side thes…
The Most Important Chart of the Year
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As a new year gets underway, it is always important to be on the lookout for changes in the markets. Examples here include changes to leadership, trend, investor sentiment, momentum, and/or the macro-outlook. One of the important lessons I've learned is that changes can happen fast - espe…
Historical Cycles Disagree With Wall Street
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In last week's meandering market missive, I opined that analysts of all shapes and sizes were pretty much singing the same song right now regarding the outlook for the economy, inflation, corporate earnings, and in turn, the stock market.
To review, I wrote... The refrain goes…
Everyone Is Singing The Same Song
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Good morning and welcome to the first day of a brand-new year. If you are like most folks in this game, you are likely relishing the idea of being done with the nightmare that was 2022 and are ready to hit the reset button.
From my seat, the question of the day is how traders are …
