State of the Markets
Thoughts On The Macro Themes
By:
With the Fed meeting on tap next week (the rate announcement is slated for 2:00 pm Wednesday with the Powell presser to follow) and the crowd split on whether or not the country's merry band of central bankers will hike rates again or take a pass to get more data, it is fairly easy to arg…
AI or Bust!
By:
I was asked recently to sum up the action in the stock market as succinctly as possible. As long-time readers are likely aware, brevity is not exactly my strong suit. But after giving it some thought, I did manage to come up with a three-word summary, which also doubles as the title of th…
While We Wait...
By:
Make no mistake about it; this week's Fed meeting is the primary focal point for market participants. And from my seat, the outcome and/or the "tone" of Jay Powell's press conference is likely to become the driver of the next near-term trend in both the stock and bond markets.
Whi…
A New Bull Market?
By:
The stock market appears to have spent the vast majority of the last week or so doing, well, a lot of nothing. In short, after the S&P 500 moved to the high end of the recent trading range, which, as our heroes in horns tell us, is certainly an encouraging sign, traders decided to hit…
The Great Debate
By:
On various calls with institutional clients over the past couple of weeks, I have summarized the current state of the market as an ongoing debate between the bulls and bears - playing out daily. I opined that the macro situation boils down to a series of questions. For example: Will the e…
What's It Gonna Be?
By:
With the macro backdrop remaining fairly fluid these days, it appears that market players are in search of the appropriate levels - for stocks, bonds, fed funds futures, gold, and just about anything else that might be impacted by a burgeoning crisis.
A week ago, traders were posi…
The Question Of The Day Is...
By:
The question of the day is simple. Are investors dealing with another banking crisis, which poses what is called "systemic" risk (I.E. Risks that threaten the entire banking system) or what my colleague Jeff Pietsch, CFA terms "idiosyncratic" risk - meaning risks that are specific to each…
How Did This Happen?
By:
And just like that, the game has changed. Almost completely. Gone is all the fretting about inflation, the Fed's final few rate hikes, and the corresponding impacts on the economy and earnings. Instead, investors of all shapes and sizes find themselves faced with a banking crisis.
Bostic Boost
By:
Until Thursday afternoon, the path of least resistance for both stock and bond prices appeared to be down. Given the macro narrative, this actually made some sense. After all, with February's inflation and economic data coming in hotter/better than expected and the Fed pledging to remain …
