State of the Markets
The Bond Market Is Doing What?
To hear former PIMCO Bond King Bill Gross tell it, bonds have reversed a 35-year bullish trend and have now entered a bear market. This massive bear will purportedly last many years and wipe out tens of trillions of investor capital in the process.
The trigger to Mr. Gross's asser…
The Message From the Indicators Is...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. While spring break season is underway and you may be more focused on getting to the beach or working on your short game, let's start the week with a review my key market models and indicators. Remember, the primary goal of this exercise (something I a…
"The Simple Message Is..."
Parsing the words of central bankers once required one to learn the equivalent of a foreign language and was considered an art form. Back in the day, one had to learn how to interpret the words used by Alan Greenspan in order to try and figure out what the Fed might do next. Heck, at one …
Lines In The Sand
Here we go again - Fed Day, March 2017. While this is but the first of several central bank meetings this week - the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are also slated to meet - the gathering of Janet Yellen's bunch is likely the most important.
The fu…
While We Wait...
While we wait on this week's big events, which include the FOMC announcement and Janet Yellen press conference Wednesday afternoon, the election results in the Netherlands, meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday, and the Brits triggerin…
The Next Act In The Play...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. To be sure, this week's meeting of Janet Yellen and her merry band of central bankers will be the focal point for the markets. In case you've been sleeping under a rock for the past month, note that the markets are expecting the Fed to raise rates on …
Happy Birthday!
Don't look now fans, but the current secular bull market in stocks turns 8 years old today. Yep, that's right; 8 years ago, today, Jamie Dimon stepped to the microphone on the White House lawn and reminded everyone that his bank not only wasn't at risk of collapse, but was actually profit…
Today's Focus: Yellen, Tepper, and Jobs
There are three items of note on this fine Wednesday morning. First, let's remember that the FOMC is meeting next week. And while the market now expects Yellen & Co. to raise the Fed Funds rate target by 0.25%, traders don't tend to make big commitments in front of important events.
If It's Obvious, It's Obviously...
By now, everybody knows the bull argument. In short, stocks are discounting better days ahead for the economy and earnings, less regulation, a "fantastic" stimulus package, and of course, "massive" tax reform. But as I've opined a time or two, the key here is that these expectations must …
Are 9 Warnings Enough?
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Based on early indications, it appears that the bears may be trying to get something going to the downside here. Everybody knows that the current trend is stretched to the upside and that the market is overbought. As such, some downside exploration wo…