State of the Markets
How Do You Outperform?
A financial advisor recently asked me a question that, on the surface, sounded simple enough. In fact, I thought my answer was going to be a breeze and that since I had set aside an hour for the call, I'd probably wind up with an extra 30 minutes in my day! However, an hour and half later…
A More Cautious Stance Makes Sense
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Well, it's a new month and a new quarter - wow, where does the time go? As usual, let's start the week (and the month and the quarter) with a review my key market models and indicators. To review, the primary goal of this exercise (something I actuall…
Is The New Narrative All About Confidence?
Those expecting to see the stock market indices crumble in response to the GOP's failure to get their healthcare bill passed are probably disappointed with the action seen over the last two days. Remember, just about everybody in the game has been calling for a meaningful decline in stock…
What's The Narrative Now?
Prior to last week, the market narrative was based on hope. Hope that corporate tax cuts would bring cash and jobs back home and make America great again. Hope that tax reform would help the middle class. Hope that reducing regulations would help banks and other industries flourish. Hope …
Some Caution Appears Warranted
Good Monday morning and welcome back. To be sure, the healthcare bill was a fiasco for the Republicans and will perhaps sow seeds of doubt about the prospects for getting tax reform or a stimulus package done. So, with an abundance of prognostications about what the future looks like here…
All About "Strategery"
At this time yesterday morning, the thinking in the market was that if the GOP Healthcare bill was passed Thursday night, traders could breathe a sigh of relief and look ahead to the more important stuff - aka Tax Reform and stimulus spending. However, the computers were also programmed t…
Positioning In Front of Big, Bad Events
To market watchers, it is fairly clear that the fate of the current stock market trend is tied to today's House vote on the Republican's healthcare bill designed to "repeal and replace" Obamacare. And while the wranglings in D.C. are often quite complex, the bottom line for the stock mark…
The Trump (Speed) Bump
The "Trump Rally" hit what many pundits are calling a "speed bump" yesterday. While a pullback has been expected by just about everyone in the game, the speed at which the vehicle hit the bump still managed to send passengers flying in all directions. The Dow fell more than 235 points, no…
The Bond Market Is Doing What?
To hear former PIMCO Bond King Bill Gross tell it, bonds have reversed a 35-year bullish trend and have now entered a bear market. This massive bear will purportedly last many years and wipe out tens of trillions of investor capital in the process.
The trigger to Mr. Gross's asser…
The Message From the Indicators Is...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. While spring break season is underway and you may be more focused on getting to the beach or working on your short game, let's start the week with a review my key market models and indicators. Remember, the primary goal of this exercise (something I a…