State of the Markets
Since It's Still September...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Before we let the blinking screens take over our lives again, let's step back and start the week with a review of the state of the market and our objective major market indicators/models.
The first step is a review of the price/trend of the ma…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part IV (QE-Infinity and Beyond!)
With the markets (a) stuck in what I'll call price discovery mode in relation to the idea that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the QE Era and (b) in the middle of what has historically been a seasonally weak period for stock prices, I'm going to spend my time this morning contin…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part III (Everybody's Doin' It)
The key driver to the markets at the present time is the idea that the Global QE era is coming to a end. The question for such a massive, macro issue is, of course, what to do about it and when. So, with the market breathing a sigh of relief this morning in response to the Bank of England…
The End of an Era?
So, did we learn anything from the resumption of the market's dance to the downside yesterday? Can the action be blamed on anything specific? Should we be concerned about the reversal of Monday's reversal? Or is this simply the latest edition of computers gone wild, or what I like to call…
No New Message From Brainard
Down 2.4% on Friday. Up 1.5% on Monday. Such is life in the stock market these days when the computers think they've found a theme. Or rather, when the computers think they've found a theme one day and then realize they were wrong the next. Good times.
On Friday, stocks got hit ha…
Freak-out Mode Is Back
Good Monday morning and welcome back. On Friday, investors were reminded of why September is known for volatility. And with the computers likely cued up and waiting for a reason - any reason - to sell stocks, current rout would appear to be self-fulfilling to a certain degree. However, th…
Why Tactical Strategies Aren't Working Very Well - Part II
Yesterday, I began a series of posts that I have been meaning to write for quite some time. The topic at hand is why so many technical stock market indicators and, in turn, so many tactical investing strategies have struggled since the end of the credit crisis - and more specifically, ove…
Why Tactical Strategies Aren't Working Very Well - Part I
With traders waiting to hear what Mario Draghi has to say this morning, I'd like spend a few minutes on the idea that the character of the market has changed rather dramatically during the current bull run.
Cutting to the chase, there can be little argument that a great many tacti…
The Data Has Been Disappointing, But...
If you find yourself looking for something to worry about, the recent string of economic data just might fit the bill. In fact, immediately following the release of the reports on ISM Manufacturing (designed to indicate the health of the manufacturing sector), Nonfarm Payrolls/Unemploymen…