State of the Markets
All About Deutsche
On this final trading day of the third quarter, the focus has shifted entirely to state of Germany's biggest banks, namely Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank. While the soundness of the European banking system has been an issue on and off since the credit crisis ended in 2009, specific concern…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part VI (The Rise of the Machines)
One down, one to go. Important central bank meetings, that is. While we will have to wait a few more hours to hear whether Janet Yellen's merry band of central bankers is going to raise interest rates today, we did learn overnight that the Bank of Japan will now target the level of intere…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part V (The Numbers)
With the markets waiting on both the BoJ (Bank of Japan) meeting and Janet Yellen's announcement on Wednesday, let's go ahead and spend our time this morning continuing the discussion on why tactical/technical strategies have not fared well in recent years.
So far, we've establish…
Since It's Still September...
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Before we let the blinking screens take over our lives again, let's step back and start the week with a review of the state of the market and our objective major market indicators/models.
The first step is a review of the price/trend of the ma…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part IV (QE-Infinity and Beyond!)
With the markets (a) stuck in what I'll call price discovery mode in relation to the idea that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the QE Era and (b) in the middle of what has historically been a seasonally weak period for stock prices, I'm going to spend my time this morning contin…
Why Tactical Isn't Working - Part III (Everybody's Doin' It)
The key driver to the markets at the present time is the idea that the Global QE era is coming to a end. The question for such a massive, macro issue is, of course, what to do about it and when. So, with the market breathing a sigh of relief this morning in response to the Bank of England…
The End of an Era?
So, did we learn anything from the resumption of the market's dance to the downside yesterday? Can the action be blamed on anything specific? Should we be concerned about the reversal of Monday's reversal? Or is this simply the latest edition of computers gone wild, or what I like to call…
No New Message From Brainard
Down 2.4% on Friday. Up 1.5% on Monday. Such is life in the stock market these days when the computers think they've found a theme. Or rather, when the computers think they've found a theme one day and then realize they were wrong the next. Good times.
On Friday, stocks got hit ha…
Freak-out Mode Is Back
Good Monday morning and welcome back. On Friday, investors were reminded of why September is known for volatility. And with the computers likely cued up and waiting for a reason - any reason - to sell stocks, current rout would appear to be self-fulfilling to a certain degree. However, th…
Why Tactical Strategies Aren't Working Very Well - Part II
Yesterday, I began a series of posts that I have been meaning to write for quite some time. The topic at hand is why so many technical stock market indicators and, in turn, so many tactical investing strategies have struggled since the end of the credit crisis - and more specifically, ove…