State of the Markets
Even The Indicators Are Confused
Good morning. Some say the stock market is a discounting mechanism for future expectations. Others suggest it is an example of crowd psychology in motion. So, given that the market appears to once again be "stuck in the middle with you…
Did Stocks Rally For the Wrong Reason?
Good morning. Don't you just love this game? The very moment the price action begins to make sense - bam! - Something happens that causes traders to reverse course in a big way, leaving many scratching their heads in the process.
Of course, I'm referring to the decline in the S&am…
The Very Best Way To Invest In This Market Is...
Good morning. On a personal note, let me begin this morning's missive by saying that France is one of my favorite places on the planet. And while my wife and I are not "city people," Paris is always on our short list of vacation stops each year. As such, our hearts and prayers go out to t…
Once Again, It's Time To...
Well, here we go again. Just when you thought that the bulls were back in charge and the favorable seasonality was going to cause Christmas to come early this year to the corner of Broad and Wall, the worry returns. And with that worry comes the usual selling and what could easily become …
Back To The Valuation Argument
I spent the first half of the week at a conference for financial advisors. So naturally, the state of the stock market came up in conversation a time or two. But instead of espousing my views on the market, more often than not, I was the one asking the questions. In short, I was trying to…
Moving Toward The Launch Pad
Friday's jobs report appears to have been a game changer. Just about the time everybody on the planet had decided that Yellen & Company didn't have the data it has been looking for to begin raising rates this year (with many believing that rates wouldn't rise next year either) Nonfarm…
Key Question: Are Stocks Being Efficient or Noisy?
Yesterday morning, we played devil's advocate and began looking at reasons why stocks might be ready to go the other way - at least in the near-term. The thinking is that since stocks have been stuck in a trading range for more than a year now, the trend has been for traders to look for o…
Is It Time To Go The Other Way (Again)?
What we've learned over the past year and a half (or so) is that the trends in the stock market (a) don't tend to stick around for long and (b) change directions at the drop of a hat. So, with the S&P 500 having run +11.75% from the September 28 low and now flirting with fresh all-tim…
Good News/Bad News From the Volume Front
I start my day each morning by reviewing about 40 different stock market indicators, models, and then a host of charts. To be honest, not much changes on a daily basis. However, it is important to remain diligent in this task as one never knows when something out of the blue will crop up …
Understanding How Ms. Market Thinks
A great many investors (professional and amateur alike) follow a similar process when considering how to invest. They start the process with their take of the economy and then go from there. The general consensus here is that earnings drive stock prices and the state of the economy drives…