State of the Markets
If You Are Scratching Your Head...
After the usual post-Fed announcement hysterics, stocks stepped lively Wednesday afternoon and finished at the high of the day. For those of you keeping score at home, the S&P 500 is now more than 11% higher than where it closed on September 28. And lest we forget, that was the day th…
Some Very Scary Pictures
It is getting to be that time of year when it is oh so tempting to incorporate the season into the titles/themes of stock market commentary. While I usually try to avoid being trite when conjuring up my oftentimes meandering morning market missive, today I can't seem to help myself. So, w…
Mood Swing
What a difference a week or so makes. Seven trading days ago, most everything I read had a negative bent to it. Everyone was just SO sure that the stock market would bump its head on the obvious resistance level at S&P 2020. Everyone was also sure that stocks would proceed to head dir…
Scratch That. It's Still All About...
In yesterday's missive, we opined that the near-term direction of the stock market was being driven by (a) oil and the related global growth concerns, (b) the state of the earnings season, and (c) what the central bankers of the world were planning to do next (and when).
But after…
Sifting Through The Tea Leaves
As I have likely mentioned a time or twenty, the purpose of my oftentimes meandering morning market missive is to (a) identify the primary drivers of the market action, (b) ponder the important questions/issues facing the market, and (c) to try and stay in tune with what is ACTUALLY happe…
The Catalyst Is Clear, The Direction Is Not
If the action seen over past couple weeks has told us anything, it is that (a) the worries over global growth have dissipated and (b) there appears to be some trepidation over the state of the current earnings season.
The first part of this analysis explains why stocks have blaste…
False Alarm
The big rally seen over the last two weeks took many in the bear camp by surprise. Just when our furry friends thought stocks were ready to break down and embark on a new leg lower, a 7.1% rally in the S&P 500 sprang up out of nowhere.
However, for those following along in the…
Don't Look Now, But There May Be Reasons For Optimism
The question of the day remains largely the same at this point in time: Have we seen the lows of this move or are the bears about to retake control of the market again?
To be sure, there are lots of reasons to remain negative on the outlook for stocks here. There is the situation …
If I Were Stranded On A Deserted Island...
Up until a few days ago, it looked like the bears were going to win the day. But then again, this is what "retests" are all about. The worries return to the market, the selling intensifies, and everyone in the game is reminded of what the bad old days of 2000-02 and 2008 felt like.
Crash Playbook Continues To Play Out
Immediately after the August 24 mini crash, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as that very week, which it did. I also wrote extensively and did a fair amount of media discussions on the topic. So far, the major indices are nicely following that scenario which had st…