David Moenning

The Most Interesting (Chart) In The World

As I may have mentioned a time or three, I don't usually write on Friday mornings. After penning an almost daily missive on the state of the market since the late 1990's, I figure I can a day off every now and again. However, in running through my charts, I was struck by the curre…

Trade War Lite?

If you find yourself wondering why Ms. Market is fluctuating back and forth lately, you haven't been paying attention. Cutting to the chase, this market is all about the tariffs and the potential for a global trade war. There are arguments on both sides here (hence the back and fo…

The Lines In The Sand Are Clear

On Monday morning, I opined that the so-called "tariff tantrum" (I.E. last week's 3.5-day, 5% decline in response to the threat of tariffs on steel and aluminum) had ushered in the third chapter in the "crash playbook" - aka the "retest phase." Unlike the first two phases - the "e…

Maybe He Will. Maybe He Won't. And That's The Point.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't. Impose those nasty tariffs on steel and aluminum, that is. And that's the point as the stock market appears to be figuring out that with this President, a deal isn't a deal until the deal is actually done. That's right. Just about the time traders we…

"Tariff Tantrum" Triggers The Retest Phase

The "Tariff Tantrum," as it is being called, is clearly the current focal point of the market. With the glaring exception of the White House, most everyone agrees that embarking on a trade war doesn't do anybody much good. And whether or not the President actually makes good on the threat…

Parsing Mr. Powell's Words Suggests...

Make no mistake about it; this stock market continues to care about interest rates, inflation and what I refer to as "Fed Expectations." In short, yesterday's sudden drop of 300 Dow points confirmed this point. Well, to a certain degree, anyway. In case you were napping, on an air…

Indicator Review: Stay Seated on the Bull Train

Last week, I opined that there were two components to the recent stock market selloff; technical and fundamental. I suggested that the latter was tied to inflation, rates, and Fed expectations while the former had to do with computerized algorithmic trading and the blow-up of the short-vo…

Three Ways To Look At The Market Action

From my perch, there are three ways to look at Wednesday's action in the stock market. On one hand, there is the technical take. Technicians will say that a "key reversal" occurred on the daily charts of the Dow and S&P 500 (but not so much on the NASDAQ, Russell or Mid-Cap in…

Making The "Call"

After the roller coaster rebound seen on Friday, February 9 and then the best week in more than 5 years for the S&P 500, I guess one of the easiest stock market calls was that it was probably time to "go the other way" for a while. And "go the other way" they did on Tuesday. C…

No Surprises

The bears were probably more than a little disappointed with their performance yesterday. If you will recall, Dow futures had swung from a gain of +165 points just prior to the release of what was being billed as a potential blockbuster CPI report, to a loss of -340 points minutes after. …