David Moenning
The Rate Trade Remains In Play
The State of the Market
I'm traveling for the next week, so the plan is to keep my oftentimes meandering market missive brief and to the point. So... From my seat, the key driver to the current market is the action in the bond market. In short, it appears that the…
Backdrop Remains Constructive For Bulls
The State of the Market
Long-time readers know that the primary purpose of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the drivers of the current market environment. And since I spent a fair part of the weekend dodging blizzards on our way to Palm Deser…
Is Good News Good For Stocks or Bad?
The State of the Market
From my seat, the question of the day is if good economic data is good for the stock market, or bad? Cutting to the chase, the answer appears to be, well, it depends on the day.
When Good News Is Good
To rev…
An Interest(ing) Development
The State of the Market
Midway through February, things were looking good as all-time record highs were recorded by the major indices and the YTD gain for the S&P 500 was approaching +5%. But then it happened. On 16-Feb all heck broke loose in the bond market …
Should We Trust The Thrust (Again)?
As a rules-guided money manager, I scan hundreds of indicators each week. I look at market fundamentals such as monetary conditions, earnings, economic data, and inflation expectations. In addition, I look at a myriad of technical indicators as well as "external" indicators such as invest…
The Mother's Milk of Bull Markets
The State of the Market
It is said that earnings are the mother's milk of bull markets. This certainly seems to make sense as it is easy to argue that expectations for higher earnings create an environment for rising stock prices. And don't look now fans, but earn…
Where Do We Go From Here?
The State of the Market
Long-time readers know that I'm a fan of historical market cycles. As the saying goes, history doesn't repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. And over the years, I've found this tends to be the case in the stock market, more often than not.
Should We Be Worried About Valuations?
The State of the Market
If you want to start an argument about the state of the stock market, the topic of valuations is usually a pretty good place to start. And to be sure, the topic is fairly complex. For example, valuation levels morph over time. What was extr…
